[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201725
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

The 06-hour forecast, starting at 20/1200 UTC, is for a cold
front to be along 31N80W 30N81W. Expect: N of 29N E of the cold
front to 76W, SW winds 25 to 35 knots. Seas ranging from 9 feet to
12 feet. The 24-hour forecast consists of: the cold front along
31N73W TO 23N81W. N of 29N E of front to 70W, SW winds 30 to 35
knots. Seas ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The 06-hour forecast, starting at 20/1200 UTC, is for a cold
front to be along 29N83W 21N97W. Expect: N OF 25N W of the cold
front to 93W, W to NW winds 20 to 25 knots with frequent gusts to
gale force within 30 nm of the coast between Suwannee Florida and
Pascagoula Mississippi. Seas less than 8 feet.

...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area that is called: AGADIR, TARFAYA, and
CANARIAS. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast
that is valid until 21/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence of
a N or NE near gale or gale in: AGADIR, TARFAYA, CANARIAS, and CAP
BLANC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
01N30W, to Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm either side of the boundaries between 16W and 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the gale warning in the Gulf of Mexico.

Upper level westerly wind flow is moving across the open waters of
the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front passes from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to
25N90W to N of Tampico Mexico near 23N98W. A prefrontal trough
is over the SW Gulf from 24N90W to 18N93W. Isolated moderate
convection is over the NE Gulf and N Florida N of 27N E of front.

The current cold front will shift SE across the forecast waters,
moving SE of the area by early Wednesday. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the webpage, www.nadma.gd, for
additional information.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.

A surface ridge passes from the Atlantic Ocean at 23N70W to W
Cuba near 23N84W. A 1008 mb low is centered over N Colombia. The
resultant surface pressure gradient will support fresh to locally
strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea during
the next several days. Winds will reach near gale force along the
NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the gale warning in the Atlantic Ocean.

An upper level trough is in the central Atlantic Ocean supporting
a surface trough that extends from 32N53W to 28N60W. Scattered
showers are N of 27N between 46W and 50W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1031 mb high pressure centered near
35N26W to 25N50W.

The surface trough will move eastward today. A stronger cold
front has just entered the region off the Florida coast. Winds
will reach gale force north of 29N through Wednesday night as the
front moves eastward. The wind speeds and sea heights will
diminish on Thursday, as the front reaches from Bermuda to the
Windward Passage, then continues E and weakens slowly.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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