[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front extends across the basin from southern Florida to
the Bay of Campeche. A gale warning is in effect for the waters
east of Tampico Mexico south of 21N and west of 95.5W behind the
front. These conditions will continue through the next 12 to 24
hours. Please read the latest Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N74W to
southern Florida. Gale-force winds are expected this evening
north of 28N west of the cold front to 80W, with sea heights to
10 feet. These conditions will persist through Tuesday evening.
Please read the latest Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to
02N18W. The ITCZ continues from there to south of the equator
near 22W. Isolated showers are south of the monsoon trough and
east of 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters S of
21N along the Veracruz coast. A cold front extends across the
basin from southern Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered
rain showers are noted within 45 nm of the front, and numerous
showers are ahead of the front in the Yucatan Channel. ASCAT
data earlier today showed fresh to strong northerly winds across
the basin north of the front, and gentle to moderate westerly
winds south of the front.

The front will reach the Straits of Florida this evening, and
exit the region overnight. Strong northerly winds will diminish
from the northwest tonight. A ridge will extend from northeast
Texas to the Straits of Florida on Tuesday, then a high pressure
will be centered in the northeast Gulf from Thursday through the
end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds continue across the waters east of
80W, except for near gale-force winds just north of the A-B-C
islands expected through Tuesday night. A cold front will enter
the northwest Caribbean tonight, reach from central Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras on Tuesday, stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua
on Tuesday night, then dissipate by Thursday. High pressure will
build southeastward from the Gulf of Mexico into the northwest
Caribbean by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gale force winds are expected N of 28N over the western Atlantic
tonight behind a cold front that extends from 32N74W to southern
Florida. An area of scattered numerous showers and thunderstorms
is ahead of the front from 26N-32W between 68W-75W. To the east,
a broad area of high pressure prevails across the remainder of
the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 26N36W. A
weak frontal boundary is dissipating from 31N36W to 27N52W.

The convection NW of the Bahamas will shift east overnight. The
cold front will continue pushing east, followed by strong to
gale-force winds N of 28N through Tuesday. The front will reach
from 30N65W to E Cuba on Tuesday, then stall from 26N65W to E
Cuba Tuesday night. High pressure building from the northwest
will cause the northern part of the front to begin moving east
again by Wednesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell
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