[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1238 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

This morning, scatterometer data indicated minimal gale force
winds across the Gulf of Venezuela, while an altimeter pass
showed seas of 10-12 ft near the coast of Colombia. Although
winds are forecast to diminish below gale force this afternoon
and evening, minimal gale conditions are expected again across
the Gulf of Venezuela, and near the coast of Colombia tonight.
Seas are forecast to build to 11-13 ft near the coast of
Colombia. Please see the latest Atlantic Ocean High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, for more details.

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A cold front will move off the Texas coast Sun afternoon, then
race southeastward across the entire basin through early Mon,
and across the Straits of Florida on Mon evening. Strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. A brief
instance of minimal gale force winds is possible behind the
front over the west-central waters early on Mon, and over the SW
Gulf waters by Mon evening. Seas are forecast to build to 11-12
ft with the strongest winds. Please see the latest Atlantic
Ocean High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to
03N30W to 00N40W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from
03N-06N betwen 11W-17W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-
04N between 27W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An area of showers and thunderstorms has flared up across the
northern Gulf waters, mainly N of 25N E of 94W, and is
associated with a vigorous short-wave trough forecast to move
eastward across the Gulf region today. Lightning density
indicates frequent lightning with this observed convective
activity. This system could increase the likelihood of showers
with isolated tstms over south Florida later today into the
evening hours as the short-wave trough digs across the eastern
Gulf. As of 1500 UTC, a high pressure of 1023 mb located E of
Florida near 30N76W extends a ridge across the Gulf, producing
moderate to fresh SE-S winds and seas of 4-7 ft, except 1-3 ft
over the NE Gulf. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. A
cold front will move off the Texas coast Sun afternoon, then
race southeastward across the entire basin through early Mon,
and across the Straits of Florida on Mon evening.  Please, see
Special Features for details.   A ridge will extend from
northeast Texas to the Straits of Florida on Tue, and shift NE
on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A vigorous short-wave trough, currently moving across the Gulf of
Mexico, could increase the likehood of showers with isolated
tstms across western Cuba later today into the evening hours.
The Galvez-Davison Index indicates the potential for scattered
shallow convection and isolated to scattered tstms. The most
recent scatterometer passes provide observations of fresh to
strong winds across the east and central Caribbean, and moderate
to fresh winds across the NW Caribbean, with fresh SE winds over
the Yucatan Channel, and fresh NE winds over the Windward
Passage. Fresh to strong trades will continue across the waters
east of 80W, except increasing to minimal gale force during the
overnight hours tonight off the NW coast of Colombia and Gulf of
Venezuela. Please see Special Features section. The largest
areal extent of the strong winds over the central Caribbean is
expected over this weekend, with high pressure centered NE of
the region. As the high pressure shifts east early next week,
the wind speeds over the Caribbean will decrease. A strong cold
front is forecast to enter the Yucatan channel and far NW
Caribbean on Mon, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras on Mon night, stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua on
Tue, and dissipate on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and
building seas in the 5-7 kt range are expected in the wake of
the front over the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 1500 UTC, a 1023 mb high pressure is located E of Florida
near 30N76W and extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf of
Mexico. A cold front stretches from 31N55W to 24N65W, where it
becomes stationary to near the approach to the Windward Passage.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are seen along the frontal
boundary, but mainly E of 67W. Remnants of the front will lift
north tonight into Sun ahead of another cold front moving off the
northeast Florida coast on Sun night. This second cold front will
extend from near 31N75W to northwest Cuba late Mon, and stall
from 27N65W to central Cuba on Wed. Fresh to strong SW winds
will develop ahead of this cold front over the waters N of 27N W
of 70W early on Mon, and expand across the waters N of 27N W of
about 62W by early Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong W-NW winds
will follow the front Mon through Tue morning. E of front, a
pair of 1025 mb high centers are over the east and central
Atlantic near 30N33W and near 26N46W respectively. Farther E, a
weakening cold front crosses between the Canary Islands and the
coast of Africa. Seas of up to 13-14 ft are noted per altimeter
data across the waters N of 20N E of 30W in northerly swell.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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