[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1217 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W, to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W, to
04N20W, 01N30W, crossing the Equator along 33W, to 02S44W near the
coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 07N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
from 25N97W near the NE coast of Mexico, to 17N93W in the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Rainshowers, in general, are
possible within 250 nm on either side of the line from 23N80W
in the Straits of Florida, to 25N89W, to the border of Texas and
Mexico near 26N97W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. A
surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that
is near 29N80W, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front will move off the Texas coast late on Saturday
night, and race southeastward across the entire Gulf waters on
Sunday and Sunday night, passing through the Straits of Florida on
Monday afternoon. Strong northerly winds in the wake of the front
will diminish from the northwest through Monday night. A ridge
will extend from northeast Texas to the Straits of Florida on
Tuesday, and shift northeastward on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface cyclonic wind flow is present in the Caribbean Sea.
An inverted trough in the surface pressure analysis runs from the
Windward Passage to the coastal sections of Colombia near 11N75W.

The SW-most part of an Atlantic Ocean cold front reaches SE Cuba.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are present across Jamaica.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the waters east
of 80W, except increasing to near gale-force during the overnight
hours through Sunday night off the NW coast of Colombia. A cold
front will pass eastward, through the Yucatan Basin on Monday
morning, reaching from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on
Monday night, stall from Hispaniola to Nicaragua on Tuesday, and
dissipate on Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western/central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N57W
to 26N64W to SE Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that is within 600 nm
to the NW of the line that passes through 32N50W, to 24N59W, to
Puerto Rico.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N12W to
30N14W. The cold front is dissipating from 30N14W to 25N20W and
22N27W. Rainshowers are possible from 25N northward from 40W
eastward.

A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 24N52W, between the two
cold fronts.

A cold front, from 25N65W to eastern Cuba, will reach
from 23N65W to the Windward Passage on Saturday, and then stall
across the tropical waters north of the Greater Antilles on
Saturday night. Remnants of the front will lift northward on
Sunday, ahead of another cold front moving off the northeast
Florida coast on Sunday night. This cold front will extend from
near 31N73W to northwest Cuba late on Monday, and stalling from
25N65W to east Cuba on Wednesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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