[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1222 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 09N13W
and extends to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from that location to
01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 n
mi north of the ITCZ between 21W and 27W. Similar convection
exists within 90 n mi north of the ITCZ between 34W and 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A band of clouds and embedded showers are occurring over the
southern Gulf waters south of 25N. This activity is associated
with an upper-level jet and a surface trough that is located near
the coast of Mexico. Quiet weather exists across the northern
Gulf waters supported by dry air aloft and a 1024 mb high pressure
system centered over the southeastern United States. The surface
wind flow is generally out of the east and mainly in the 10 to 15
kt range, except for slightly stronger winds over the southwestern
waters. Sea heights are highest over the western Gulf, near 6 ft,
due to the longer fetch. The high currently over the southeast
U.S. is expected to shift eastward during the next couple of days,
which should cause southerly flow to develop across the area on
Saturday. The next cold front is expected to move over the
northwestern Gulf waters on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Fairly quiet conditions exists across the Caribbean today. Patches
of low-level clouds and embedded showers are occurring across the
area. This activity is most concentrated between 67W and 80W and
over the far northwestern waters. The trade wind flow is strongest
in the climatological-favored location, near the coast of
Colombia, where winds are near 25 kt and seas are up to 10 ft. The
trade wind flow is expected to increase a little during the next
couple of days over the central and eastern Caribbean as high
pressure builds to the north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Two cold fronts are moving eastward across the western Atlantic.
The leading boundary is marked by a line of showers and
thunderstorms extending from 32N59W to eastern Cuba. The second
boundary, a reinforcing cold front, is not producing much shower
activity along its axis that extends from 32N65W to 27N73W. Fresh
northwesterly winds are occurring behind the fronts. The central
Atlantic is dominated by surface high pressure anchored by a 1022
mb high located near 23N50W. Over the eastern Atlantic, a
weakening cold front enters the area near 32N14W and extends
southwestward to 24N26W. No significant weather is occurring along
this feature. Looking ahead to the weekend, the fronts mentioned
are expected to gradually dissipate allowing the subtropical ridge
to become established across the basin.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cangialosi
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