[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
643 PM EST Thu Mar 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 07N11W
to 06N13W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N20W to 00N30W
to 02S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N between
14N-20N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1025 mb located over Louisiana extends a ridge
across the Gulf region producing moderate to fresh N-NE across
much of the Gulf, with the exception of the SW Gulf where NW winds
are noted. Sea heights are up to 8 ft across the Bay of Campeche
based on altimeter data, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. Cold air
stratocumulus clouds are seen on visible satellite imagery over
the eastern Gulf while mainly low level clouds with likely
embedded patches of light rain are affecting the western Gulf and
the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains. The ridge will
shift east from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Mexico by Fri
evening as southerly return flow spreads east across the entire
Gulf of Mexico ahead of the next cold front moving into the
northern waters late Sat night. This cold front will race across
the Gulf waters on Sun and Sun night, passing through the Straits
of Florida late Mon with strong northerly winds behind the front
on Sun and Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba to near Cozumel, Mexico. A
narrow line of showers and tstms is associated with the front
affecting the area north of 20N and west of 83W. Patches of low
level moisture with embedded showers are noted across the basin,
particularly between 75W-82W affecting Jamaica, eastern Cuba and
the Windward Passage. Another band of low level moisture is
enhancing convection over Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. The
cold front will continue moving SE tonight across the NW Caribbean
while weakening. Latest satellite derived winds and surface
observations indicate fresh to strong winds over the central
Caribbean, except off the coast of Colombia where winds are near
gale force. Light to gentle winds prevail over the western
Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds are blowing over the
eastern Caribbean as well as the tropical N Atlc forecast zones.
Northerly swell propagating south through the northeast Caribbean
passages, and the tropical waters east of the Lesser Antilles,
will gradually subside from the north through Fri night. Fresh to
strong trades will continue east of 80W, except increasing to near
gale force during the overnight hours along the northwest coast
of Colombia. A new cold front is expected to move southeast
through the Yucatan Basin on Mon and extend from east Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras by Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N64W to
central Cuba. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally
strong SW winds within about 120 nm E of the front. Fresh to
strong NW winds are just off the Florida coast. Scattered showers
are associated with the front, which is forecast to reach a
position from 31N61W to east Cuba on Fri, then stall across the
tropical waters north of the Greater Antilles on Fri night into
Sat. Remnants of the front will lift north on Sat night and Sun
ahead of another cold front that will move off the northeast
Florida coast on Sun. Near gale-force southerly flow will develop
north of the Bahamas on Sun ahead of the front. Farther east, a
1020 mb high pressure is centered near 23N58W. This system will
move eastward over the next 24 hours reaching a position near
26N49W. Another cold front extends over the east Atlantic from
31N24W to 25N45W. Fresh to strong winds are observed per
scatterometer data on either side of the front but mainly N of
26N. A 1020 mb high is centered south of the Canary Islands near
25N16W. The current large northerly swell will subside slowly
across the open waters through the end of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

GR/ERA
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