[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081628
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1128 AM EST Thu Mar 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 07N11W
to 05N13W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01N30W to 02N40W
to the Equator at 50W. No significant convection is noted at this
time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure, with a 1026 mb over eastern Texas, extends a ridge
across the Gulf region producing moderate to fresh northerly winds
in the north-central Gulf waters, with seas of 3-5 ft. Moderate to
fresh NW-N winds are still noted over the southwest Gulf, with
seas of up to 9 ft based on altimeter data. Cold air stratocumulus
clouds are seen on visible satellite imagery over the eastern Gulf
while mainly low level clouds with likely embedded patches of
light rain are affecting the western Gulf and the eastern slopes
of the Sierra Madre Mountains. The ridge will shift east from the
Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Mexico by Fri evening as southerly
return flow spreads east across the entire Gulf of Mexico ahead of
the next cold front moving into the northern waters late Sat
night. This cold front will race across the Gulf waters on Sun and
Sun night, passing through the Straits of Florida late Mon with
strong northerly winds behind the front on Sun and Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front has entered the NW Caribbean and extends from central
Cuba to near Cozumel, Mexico. Patches of low level moisture with
embedded showers are noted across the basin, particularly across
Jamaica and eastern Cuba. The cold front will move SE today across
the NW Caribbean while weakening. Latest satellite derived winds
and surface observations indicate fresh to strong winds over the
central Caribbean, except off the coast of Colombia where winds
are near gale force. Light to gentle winds prevail over the
western Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds are blowing over
the eastern Caribbean as well as the tropical N Atlc forecast
zones. Northerly swell propagating south through the northeast
Caribbean passages, and the tropical waters east of the Lesser
Antilles, will gradually subside from the north through Fri night.
Fresh to strong trades will continue east of 80W, except
increasing to near gale force during the overnight hours along the
northwest coast of Colombia. A cold front will pass southeast
through the Yucatan Basin on Mon and slow from east Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras on Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N65W to
central Cuba. Scattered showers are associated with the front,
which is forecast to reach a position from 31N61W to east Cuba on
Fri, then stall across the tropical waters north of the Greater
Antilles on Fri night into Sat. Remnants of the front will lift
north on Sat night and Sun ahead of another cold front moving off
the northeast Florida coast on Sun. Near gale force southerly flow
will develop north of the Bahamas on Sun ahead of the front.
Farther east, a 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 22N60W.
This system will move eastward over the next 24 hours reaching a
position near 26N49W. Another cold front extends over the Atlantic
from 31N27W to 25N45W. Fresh to strong winds are observed per
scaterrometer data on either side of the front but mainly N of
26N. A 1022 mb high is centered south of the Canary Island near
25N16W. The current large northerly swell will subside slowly
across the open waters through the end of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR

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