[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Storm Warning: Gale-force winds are being
experienced from a cold front that extends from 31N42W to 20N57W
to 17N63W. N of 29N between 58W and 66W NW winds are 30 to 35
kt, with seas 22 to 26 feet. Winds are expected to increase Tue
morning, with storm-force winds expected N of 29N in about 12
hours between 58W and 64W. Please read the Atlantic Ocean High
Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2, and under the
WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Large northerly swell will continue to push through the Atlantic
Ocean passages, reaching the A-B-C Islands and coastal Venezuela
through mid-week. This large swell also will propagate through
the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean waters through the week. Fresh
to strong winds will develop in the Central Caribbean Sea during
the middle of the week. Please read the Offshore Waters
Forecast, under the AWIPS header MIAOFFNT3, and under the WMO
header FZNT23 KNHC, for more details.

Heavy rainfall is expected to continue in Trinidad, Tobago, and
S Leeward islands tonight. Five inches of rain were reported in
Trinidad during the last 24 hours. A surface trough is analyzed
from 10N63W in northern Venezuela, to 12N62W, to the waters near
13N61W just to the west of the island of Saint Vincent.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to
the Equator along 30W, to the Equator along 40W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is south from 03N between
35W and 50W and the coast of Brazil.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A
surface ridge extends from southern Georgia across NW Cuba to
20N82W in the NW Caribbean Sea.

High pressure will slide eastward, and a cold front to enter the
NW Gulf tonight. The front will shift across the forecast waters
through Wednesday night, and then SE of the area on Thursday.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level dry air in subsidence prevails across nearly all of
the basin, except SE of a line from 14N60W to 11N68W, where SW
upper level wind flow is present. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rain showers are from 10N to 14N between 60W and 69W.

A cold front passes through 18N60W in the Atlantic Ocean to
17N64W in the Caribbean Sea, then dissipating to 15N71W. Rain
showers are possible in scattered to broken low level clouds,
that are north of a line from 17N62W to 14N70W to 10N80W.

Large northerly swell will continue to push through the Atlantic
Ocean passages, reaching the A-B-C Islands and coastal Venezuela
through mid-week. This large swell also will propagate through
the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean waters through the week. Fresh
to strong winds will develop in the Central Caribbean Sea during
the middle of the week. It is likely that heavy rainfall will
continue in Trinidad, Tobago, and S Leeward islands tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
the ongoing gale-force winds and storm-force winds event for the
western and central Atlantic Ocean. Please read the Atlantic
Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2, and
under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong rain showers are within
180 nm either side of a line from 32N37W to 24N45W to 15N56W to
10N62W, near NE Venezuela and Trinidad. Surface-to-low level
moisture is moving around the ridge, into the area of an upper
level trough associated with the cold front.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area north of 07N east
of the cold front. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 26N26W.

Strong to gale force winds prevail N of 25N E of 73W. The gale
force winds will shift E of the area by Tue morning. Large mixed
northerly swell will affect the waters E of Florida and the
Bahamas through mid-week. Another cold front will impact the
waters E of Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday, then shift E of
the area by the end of the week. Gale force winds are possible
on Wednesday N of 29N and between 70W and 75W associated with
this front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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