[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 AM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Storm Warning: Gale-force winds are being
experienced now. COLD FRONT FROM 31N44W TO 17.5N61W. N OF 29N
BETWEEN 52W AND 57W SW TO W WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 TO 22 FT IN
MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. Storm-force winds are being forecast in 24
hours. COLD FRONT DISSIPATED. N OF 30N BETWEEN 59W AND 65W W
WINDS 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 26 TO 31 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.

Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS
header MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W, to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to the
Equator along 31W, to the Equator along 40W, to 01N45W, to the
coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 03N southward, to the coast of
Brazil, between 40W and 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A
surface ridge passes through south central Georgia into Florida,
and it continues to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

The current high pressure and anticyclonic wind flow will retreat
eastward today. This will enable a cold front to enter the NW
Gulf tonight. The front will shift across the forecast waters
through the week, then SE of the area on Thursday. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through 19N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
the islands, to 17N64W in the Caribbean Sea. The cold front is
dissipating from 17N64W to 15N71W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to 120 nm on
either side of the line from 25N45W 19N52W 11N64W, from the
Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean Sea.

Large northerly swell will continue to push through the Atlantic
Ocean passages, reaching the A-B-C Islands and coastal Venezuela
through mid-week. This large swell also will propagate through the
Tropical North Atlantic Ocean waters through the week. Fresh to
strong winds will develop in the Central Caribbean Sea during the
middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
the ongoing gale-force winds and storm-force winds event for the
western and central Atlantic Ocean. Please read the Atlantic
Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2, and
under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 90 nm
to 180 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N40W to
25N45W, and within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the line from
25N45W 19N52W 11N64W, from the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean
Sea.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east of the cold front.
A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 23N28W

Strong to gale force winds prevail in the NE waters. The gale
force winds will shift E of the area by early Tuesday. Large
mixed northerly swell will affect all the waters E of Florida and
the Bahamas through mid-week. It is possible that another cold
front may impact the waters E of Florida on Tuesday night and
Wednesday, and then shift E of the area by the end of the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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