[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: Cold front extends from
near 32N57W to 27N70W to across S Florida. N of 28N W of cold
front to 76W W to NW WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. Seas 13 to 23 ft. The
gale force wind conditions will persist for the next 48 hours or
so with the cold front.

Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front currently
passes through 32N10W to 27N20W to 22N30W and to near 18N43W. A
surface trough continues from 19N44W to 21N51W. N OF 30N E OF 25W
W TO NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 to 20 FT IN NW SWELL.

Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast, listed under
the AWIPS header, MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header, FZNT02
KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends through the coastal sections of
southern Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues
from 03N16W dipping to S of the Equator along 22W to 02S25W to
near 05S34W. A surface trough is along 48W from just S of the
Equator to near 09N. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm northwest of the ITCZ between 23W-26W, and within 60 nm
either side of the ITCZ between 19W-23W. Similar activity is
within 30 nm of 04S34W, and from 03S to 01S between 13W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is analyzed from S Florida to 26N87W to 26N92W, where
it transitions to a stationary front to 24N95W and southward to
the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. A surface trough is east of the stationary front south of
24N. Broken to overcast low level clouds are to the north and
northwest of the line 26N86W 25N94W 19N96W.

The stationary front will dissipate today as the cold front sinks
southward over the Straits of Florida this afternoon, before
dissipating. A ridge will build across the northern Gulf on Sunday
and Monday. It is possible that another cold front may move into
the NW Gulf on Monday night, moving across the basin through
Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 62W/63W south of 17N, moving westward
at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm west of the trough.
Isolated showers are east of the trough north of 14N to include
the southern Leeward Islands.

An upper level trough/shear axis extends from 15N66W, to 11N76W,
continuing SW beyond 10N83W in Costa Rica. 12N73W, to the coast
of Panama near 09N80W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in
areas of scattered to roken low level clouds, across the
Caribbean Sea and in parts of the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, from
20N southward from 60W westward.

Large NE swell will impact the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters
into next week. A low pressure system will deepen across the NW
Atlantic Ocean through Sun. It will produce a large N swell, that
will penetrate the NE Caribbean Sea Passages from Sun into next
week reaching the A-B-C Islands and coastal Venezuela. The low
pressure center will drag a cold front into the northern Caribbean
Sea tonight, gradually dissipating through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
the two gale force wind events for the Atlantic Ocean.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front currently passes through
32N10W to 27N20W to 22N30W and to near 18N43W. Scattered showers
are along and within 180 nm southeast of the front. A surface
trough is along 48W S of 10N, moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm west
of the trough from 04N-07N, while isolated showers and weakening
thunderstorms are noted within elsewhere to the west of the trough

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front extends from near 32N57W to
27N70W to across S Florida and across the eastern and central
portions of the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is ahead of the front within 45 nm of line from
32N53W to 30N56W, and within 30 nm of line from 30N56W to 27N60W.

Strong to gale force winds prevail behind the western Atlantic
Ocean cold front into early next week. The front will shift
southeast of the area on Sun, with gale-force wind conditions
shifting east of the area. The largest swell event thus far in
this winter season will accompany this system, affecting all
waters E of Florida and the Bahamas through early next week. It is
possible that another strong cold front may impact the waters E
of Florida on Tue night. This front will move eastward after
during the middle portion of next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Aguirre
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