[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning:

COLD FRONT FROM 31N67W TO 29N70W TO 07N80W. WITHIN AREA
BOUNDED BY 31N76W TO 31N62W TO 29N65W TO 29N70W TO 31N76W SW
WINDS 30 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT W TO NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT. SEAS 9 TO
15 FT IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL. These conditions will persist for
the next 24 hours or so.

Far Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning:

A cold front currently passes through 32N12W to 29N20W to 24N30W,
and to 19N42W. N OF 29N E OF 42W W TO NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS
17 TO 21 FT IN NW SWELL.

Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast, listed
under the AWIPS header, MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header,
FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W,
crossing the Equator along 16W, to 03S20W, to 04S28W, and 04S32W
off the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 05N southward from 21W
eastward, and from 10N southward between 40W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extending from near Fort Myers Florida to 26N93W to
the SW Gulf and Veracruz Mexico will reach from S Florida to the
central Gulf along 25N to the Bay of Campeche tonight, then
dissipate across the W portion while the E portion of front sinks
S into the Straits of Florida Sat afternoon then dissipates. A
ridge will build across the northern Gulf Sun and Mon. Another
cold front may move into the NW Gulf Mon night, moving across the
basin through Wed.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 60W, from 10N to 15N. Rainshowers are
possible from 10N to 17N between 52W in the Atlantic Ocean and
65W in the Caribbean Sea.

An upper level trough/shear axis extends from 17N57W, to 15N65W
12N73W, to the coast of Panama near 09N80W. Rainshowers are
possible, in areas of scattered-to-broken low level clouds,
across the Caribbean Sea and in parts of the adjacent Atlantic
Ocean, from 20N southward from 60W westward. 24-hour rainfall
totals that are listed for the period that ended at 01/1200
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.32 in
San Juan in Puerto Rico, and 0.04 in Trinidad.

Large NE swell will impact the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters
through Saturday. A low pressure system will develop across the NW
Atlantic Ocean, during the weekend. It will produce a large N
swell, that will penetrate the NE Caribbean Sea Passages from
Sunday through late Wednesday, reaching the A-B-C Islands and
coastal Venezuela. The low will drag a cold front into the
northern Caribbean Sat night, gradually dissipating through early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
the multiple gale-force wind events for the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front currently passes through 32N12W to 29N20W to 24N30W,
and to 19N42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 29N northward between 27W and
40W. Another frontal boundary is to the north of 32N, moving E
and SE.

A cold front passes through Bermuda, to 29N70W, beyond Lake
Okeechobee in South Florida. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 28N northward
between 50W and 65W.

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas
will usher in strong to gale force winds behind it, with strong to
gale force southerly flow also ahead of it. The largest swell
event thus far in this winter season will accompany this system,
affecting all waters E of Florida and the Bahamas through Tue.
Another strong cold front may impact the waters E of Florida Tue
night, shifting E through Wed night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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