[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021720
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1220 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning:

A deepening low pressure system near the northeastern United
States is supporting a cold front that enters the discussion area
near 32N69W. This frotn then extends southwestward across south-
central Florida. Gale-force winds are occurring over the northern
portion of the area, generally north of 30N between 67W and 77W.
These conditions are expected to slowly shift eastward this
weekend.

East-Central Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning:

Scatterometer and ship data indicate that gale-force winds are
also occurring over the east-central Atlantic north of 29N
between 33W and 41W due to a complex low pressure system over the
eastern Atlantic. These winds are likely strongest in the
scattered convection north of 30N between 33W and 40W. Seas are
quite elevated, in the 15 to 20 ft. range, in mixed northwest and
north swell.

For both of these areas, please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High
Seas Forecast, listed under the AWIPS header, MIAHSFAT2 and under
the WMO header, FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 5N9W and
continues southwestward to 1N15W. The ITCZ continues from that
location to 2S21W and then westward to 2S45W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring within 150 n mi either side of the ITCZ
axis between 18W and 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front currently extends from south-central Florida
westward to 27N89W, where it becomes stationary to 25N95W and then
southward just off the coast of Mexico. Low- to mid-level clouds
and scattered showers are occurring within 120 n mi north and west
of the boundary. Winds are generally in the 20-25 kt range north
of the front and light and variable south of the boundary. The
front is expected to gradually weaken in the area, as the best
upper-level support shifts eastward into the Atlantic. This
should leave the area with generally quiet weather during the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weak surface trough moving across the Windward Islands is
generating some showers over the islands and over the far
southeastern Caribbean waters. Otherwise, tranquil conditions
exist across the remainder of the region supported by abundant dry
air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere. The trade
wind wind flow is lighter-than-average for this time of year
because of a narrow and weak ridge to the north of the region.
These winds will decrease further this weekend as the high gives
way to broad troughing associated with a large and strong low
pressure system well north of the area. This low will also cause
large north to northeasterly swells to move through the gaps and
across the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
the two gale-force wind events over the Atlantic Ocean.

Elsewhere, a weak trough along 61W from 23N to 29N is producing
scattered showers within 180 n mi east of the boundary. Similar
activity is located near another trough, or shear axis, extending
from 21N46W to 22N52W. Farther east, a cold front enters the
discussion area near 32N15W and extends to a 1014 mb low near
24N34W and then continues to 21N42W. This feature is producing
some shower activity, which is best organized near the low.

Looking ahead, the strong low pressure pressure system currently near
the northeastern United States is expected to strengthen a little
more and slowly shift eastward this weekend. This will bring
strong winds and high seas to a large portion of the western and
central Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cangialosi
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