[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1259 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A slightly tighter pressure gradient,
between a strong surface ridge moving across the mid-Atlc and the
SW N Atlc waters, and comparatively lower surface pressure in
northwest South America, will support minimal gale-force winds
pulsing at night near the coast of Colombia through Thursday
night. The sea heights will range from 10 feet to 15 feet during
the peak winds period. Please read the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia,
Africa near 06N10W and continues to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues
from there to 01N21W to 0N35W to 0N50W. Isolated showers are
within 90 nm either side of the monsoon and ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure center
located in the mid-Atlc waters near 32N73W SW across Florida and
into the Gulf of Mexico. A relaxed pressure gradient prevails in
the basin, thus supporting generally light to moderate return
flow ahead of the next cold front to move southeast off the
northern Gulf coast Friday morning. The front will move across the
southern Florida Peninsula Friday night to Saturday morning,
however a great portion of the front across the Gulf will stall
before lifting northward as a warm front across the western Gulf
waters Saturday through Saturday night. Fresh to strong northerly
winds will accompany the passage of this front. A second cold
front will move across Florida Monday morning, reaching South
Florida Monday night. Scattered heavy showers are expected across
the north-central and NE Gulf waters associated with the passage
of the second cold front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

The remnants of a shear line in the NW Caribbean are analyzed as a
surface trough that extends from 20N84W to the Gulf of Honduras
near 15N87W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm either
side of this boundary. Strong high pressure in the mid-Atlc
extending to the SW N Atlc continue to support moderate to fresh
NE winds off the lee of Cuba and in the Windward passage. Fresh to
near gale-force winds are in the south-central basin, except for
minimal gale winds off the coast of Colombia. Moderate trades are
in the remainder eastern basin. GOES-16 imagery show dry and very
stable conditions in the lower and middle levels, which is
supporting fair weather. Otherwise, a cold front will stall
across the Yucatan Channel on Monday night with possible showers
and fresh to strong winds.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface ridge centered in the mid-Atlc waters extends
south across the SW N Atlc. Ahead of the ridge, a cold front
continues to weaken along 30N52W SW to 25N60W to 22N68W where it
stalls towards the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Isolated
showers are possible in the vicinity of the boundary, however
strong convection is not anticipated. In the central Atlc, a
weak surface trough lack of convection extends from 26N47W to
18N53W. NE of this trough, a middle to upper level low continues
to support scattered showers from 20N to 26N between 37W and 45W.
The remainder eastern Atlc is under the influence of the Azores
high anchored by a 1038 mb high just N of the Islands. The cold
front over the central Atlc is forecast to stall Thu while it
continues to weaken. A second cold front will move southeast off
the northeast Florida coast on Friday afternoon. The front will
reach from 30N64W SW to the northern Bahamas Saturday morning. The
front is forecast to stall late Saturday night from 30N61W to the
northern Bahamas late Saturday night. A third cold front is forecast
to be moving off the northeast Florida coast on Monday morning.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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