[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A slightly tighter pressure gradient,
between a strong SE U.S.A. surface ridge and comparatively lower
surface pressures in northern South America, will support minimal
gale-force winds, to be pulsing at night near the coast of
Colombia from 10.5N to 13N between 74W and 77W, through Thursday
night. The sea heights will range from 10 feet to 15 feet during
that period. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W to 02N20W
and 02N27W, to the Equator along 33W, and to the Equator along
37W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 03N southward between 18W and 23W. isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 06N southward between 10W
and 51W. rainshowers are possible in the remainder of the area
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb south central Georgia high
pressure center, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, into
southern Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Gale-force winds are present in the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
that is along the eastern Pacific Ocean coast of Mexico.

The current surface ridge will weaken on Thursday night, allowing
a cold front to move southeast off the Texas coast. The front
will stall east to west along 26N on Friday night, and then lift
northward as a warm front across the western Gulf waters from
Saturday through Saturday night, ahead of a second cold front that
will be moving off the Texas coast on Sunday morning. The second
cold front will reach along 25N on Sunday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

A stationary front passes through 25N69W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to SE Cuba near 21N76W. The stationary front is dissipating from
21N76W to 19N81W, and into the Gulf of Honduras. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N northward from 79W
westward.

The current stationary front will dissipate gradually through
Thursday night. The surface pressure gradient between Atlantic
Ocean high pressure and persistent low pressure in northwest
Colombia will support nocturnal gale-force winds along the
northwest coast of Colombia tonight, and again on Thursday night,
with maximum seas of 15 feet. The pressure gradient will relax
during the upcoming weekend. A cold front will stall across the
Yucatan Channel on Monday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N61W, to the NW Bahamas
and NW Cuba. This trough supports a cold front that passes through
32N61W to 28N64W to 25N69W. The front is stationary from 25N69W
to SE Cuba near 21N76W. The stationary front is dissipating from
21N76W to 19N81W, and into the Gulf of Honduras. A pre- frontal
trough is within 120 nm to the east of the cold front from 23N to
33N. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate
rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line that
passes through 32N56W to 29N58W. rainshowers are possible
elsewhere to the NW of the line that passes through 32N54W 26N60W
21N65W, to the eastern tip of Hispaniola.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N
northward between 40W and 53W. A 1012 mb low pressure center is
near 22N51W. One surface trough extends from the low pressure
center to 22N49W 19N54W and 21N58W. A second surface trough is
along 22N44W 16N51W 13N60W near Barbados. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 22N to
28N between 40W and 44W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere from
20N northward between 40W and 55W, within 240 nm on either side of
23N55W 17N63W, and within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of 20N45W
16N51W 11N60W, and to 10N63W including crossing Trinidad and parts
of NE Venezuela.

A surface ridge is along 30W, from 10N northward.

Remnants of the current front will lift northward across the
Bahamas on Thursday night ahead of a second cold front, that will
be moving southeast off the northeast Florida coast on Friday
morning. The second cold front will reach from Bermuda to 24N80W
on Saturday, then stall from 25N65W to 23N80W on Saturday night.
The frontal remnants will lift north early on Sunday ahead of a
third cold front, that is forecast to be moving off the northeast
Florida coast on Sunday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net