[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290947
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
447 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warnings: A 1033 mb high pressure area centered
north of the area near 39N53W is supporting sustained winds to
near gale force south of 22N between 60W and 76W. Also, a tight
pressure gradient persists between the high pressure and a 1011
mb low pressure area centered near 32N45W. The low pressure will
drift south of 30N early this morning. Winds are reaching gale
force within 240 nm of the western quadrant of the low pressure,
and will persist into the afternoon north of 29N between 49W and
52W, then diminish late today as the low pressure weakens.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of 1036 mb high pressure
centered over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over South
America is supporting minimal gales near the coast of Colombia,
with seas in the 12 to 15 ft range. Expect winds to gale-force
primarily late at night and into the early morning hours through
Tue, and possibly well into next week. Please see the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details on this event.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning off Veracruz: A cold front reaching
from Big Bend area of FLorida in the northeast Gulf to far
southwest Gulf near 18.5N93W. Colder and drier air behind the
front will support winds to gale force off the coast of Veracruz
starting later today and persisting through tonight, south of 21N
and west of 95W, with seas building to 8 to 12 ft. Winds and seas
will diminish below gale force through early Tue as high pressure
builds in the wake of the front.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 08N12N to 07N16W where it transitions to the intertropical
convergence zone and continues to 00N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 17W and 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details
in reference to an upcoming gale event in the SW Gulf.

Fresh to strong northerly winds follow the front over the
northwest Gulf. Fresh southeast winds are active over the Straits
of Florida, but are starting to diminish from west to east ahead
of the approaching front. A few showers are active over the far
eastern Gulf ahead of an upper trough pivoting across the lower
Mississippi Valley. These showers will shift east of the area
tonight, and no significant convection is noted across the Gulf
at this time. The low pressure over the western Florida Panhandle will
strengthen and move toward the Carolina coast tonight dragging
the cold front eastward across the remainder of the Gulf waters by
late Monday. High pressure will build in the wake of the front
allow winds and seas to diminish across the region although fresh
easterly may persist across the Straits of Florida through mid
week. Looking ahead, another front may enter the northern Gulf by
late week, bringing another round of fresh northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details regarding
the gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.

The main driver through the short term will continue to be the
strong high pressure north of the area, supporting the gale winds
off Colombia, but also fresh to strong trade winds through much
of the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage. Buoy and altimeter data show seas of 8 to 12 ft in the
area of strong winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
ongoing over the Yucatan Channel and far northwest Caribbean. The
gradient will loosen across the region as the high pressure shifts
east ahead of a cold front sweeping across the Gulf of Mexico
today and into the northwest Caribbean tonight. The front will
stall from roughly the Windward Passage to central Honduras by mid
week, bringing fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds to the
northwest Caribbean and the lee of Cuba. Looking ahead, high
pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will
support fresh to strong trade winds once again over much of the
central and eastern Caribbean and tropical Atlantic west of 55W
late in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
gale conditions western Atlantic south of 22N and developing gale
conditions in central Atlantic.

Scattered to numerous showers and few thunderstorms are active
off northeast Florida and the Gulf Stream ahead of an upper trough
digging across the southeastern United States. Fresh southerly
winds are noted off northeast Florida and north of the Bahamas
ahead of a surface low associated with the upper trough over the
western Florida Panhandle and a related cold front entering the
eastern Gulf. 1036 mb high pressure is centered north of the area
near 37N57W, supporting a broad area of fresh winds east of the
Bahamas, with 8 to 12 ft seas. The fresh southerly flow off
northeast Florida will increase late today ahead of the cold
front, which is expected to enter the Atlantic by late today. The
front will reach from near 31N73W to the northwest Bahamas to the
Straits of Florida Mon night, then from 31N64W to eastern Cuba by
Tue night. Strong NW winds and building seas will follow the
front.

Farther east over the central Atlantic, well stacked deep-layer
upper low and associated surface low centered near 31N45W will
enter the area this morning with an attendant frontal boundary and
shear line reaching toward the Leeward Islands. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms are noted east of the low pressure and
north of 25N. The low pressure and front will weaken substantially
as they drift southward through mid week, but strong SE winds
will persist east between the low pressure and strong high
pressure to the northeast over Azores.

Over the eastern Atlantic, strong ridging northeast of the Azores
is supporting fresh NE winds off North Africa. These winds will
increase over the Canary Islands by mid week as low pressure off
Morocco drifts southwest.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen
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