[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure in
the central Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern
Colombia will bring pulses of strong-to-minimal gale force NE to
E winds along and near the coast of Colombia during the overnight
hours, from today through Friday, and possibly for more time,
into the upcoming weekend. The sea heights are expected to be in
the range of 9 feet to 14 feet with the winds. Please read the
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: COLD FRONT FROM 25N80W TO 23N86W,
THEN STATIONARY TO 20.5N95W TO 18N93W. S OF 21N W OF FRONT NW
WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. The surface pressure gradient
in the far SW Gulf along the coast of Mexico in the vicinity of
Veracruz has become tighter, as the surface ridge that extends
from strong high pressure centered in eastern Texas presses
southward along eastern Mexico and toward the SW Gulf of Mexico.
the tight pressure gradient from the building ridge will maintain
the northerly gale wind conditions into Thursday, before
diminishing to N-to-NE fresh winds. Please read the the latest
NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 05N10W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W, to 01N23W,
and to the Equator along 35W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 06N southward from 52W
eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
cold front and associated gale-force northerly winds.

Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers
are in the SW corner of the area, from 23N southward from 90W
westward. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in areas of broken
low level clouds.

NW gale-force winds will continue between the frontal boundary
and the coast of Veracruz through Thursday morning. The E part of
the front will move SE of the Gulf by Thursday morning, leaving a
NW-to-SE orientated trough across the far SW waters to meander
through early Saturday, and then lift N as a warm front through
Saturday.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force winds for the area that is off the coast of Colombia.

Strong trade winds across the near and offshore waters of NW
Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours
through Sunday night. A cold front will move slowly SE across the
Yucatan Channel and into the NW Caribbean this evening, then stall
and gradually dissipate from Central Cuba to N Belize through
Friday. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will
produce fresh to strong NE winds across the NW Caribbean by late
Thursday, with these conditions spreading E across the NE
Caribbean on Friday night through Saturday. Moderate to fresh
trades will continue across the tropical Atlc Ocean waters E of
the Windwards through Friday, with fresh to strong NE winds
forecast on Friday night through Sunday night.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 32N72W southwestward to 28N77W
to the Straits of Florida as of 15Z. A pre-frontal trough is
within 30 nm SE and S of the front. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are along the trough portion NE of the Bahamas. A
surface trough is along a position from 31N37W to 26N38W to
21N38W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 13N
to 30N between 40W and 55W, with an upper level trough. One
surface trough is along 38W/39W from 22N to 31N. A second surface
trough is along 48W/49W from 18N to 26N. A third surface trough is
along 54W/56W from 1N to 28N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 18N to 27N between 38W and
50W.

A cold front extending SW from 31N71W across the NW Bahamas to
the Straits of Florida near 24N81W, will move slowly SE and reach
from 29N65W to Central Cuba on Thursday evening, and then stall E
to W along 22N Friday night through Saturday night. The W part of
the front will lift N across the Straits of Florida on Sunday
night. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of this front will
produce strong to near gale force NE-E winds NW of the front from
Thursday through Saturday, with conditions improving by Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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