[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231212 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Corrected last line under Gulf of Mexico Warning

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure in the
central Atlantic and lower pressures over northern Colombia
resulted in the trades in the SW Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia to reach minimal gale force during the overnight hours.
These winds will subside back to strong by noon Tuesday. Seas
are expected to build to 10-13 ft in this area. Winds are
expected to pulse back to gale force again late tonight and into
Wed morning. Model guidance indicates that the pulsing to
minimal gale will continue each night through the weekend.
Please see latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force winds are forecast to
commence this afternoon in the far SW Gulf behind a cold front
that extends from just W of Apalachicola southwestward to
24N89W, and continues to the SW Gulf inland Mexico in the
vicinity of Veracruz as of 0900 UTC this morning. The cold front
will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of
Campeche later this morning, from the Straits of Florida across
the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz Mexico tonight, then weaken as
it slowly moves to just SE of the by late on Wed. Minimal gale
force NW to N winds are likely near the coast of Veracruz
beginning this afternoon, then diminish slightly tonight. Gale
force winds may return briefly to the same area Wed night, then
diminish significantly on Thu. Please see the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Africa near 06N10W to
04N17W. The ITCZ continues WSW from 04N17W to cross the equator
near 31W. Isolated convection is south of 03N between 25W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends extends from just W of Apalachicola
southwestward to 24N89W, and continues to the SW Gulf inland
Mexico in the vicinity of Veracruz as of 0900 UTC this morning.
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorm, some with many
lightning strikes and strong gusty winds are observed to the SE
of the front over much of the SE gulf waters from 25N to 28N E
of 84W, and also within 60 nm of line from 25N84W to 24.5N86W to
24N87W. This activity will move across the rest of the SE Gulf
through this morning. The cold front will reach from the Straits
of Florida across the Yucatan Peninsula to near Veracruz Mexico
tonight, then weaken as it slowly moves to just SE of the area
by late on Wed. The pressure gradient associated with the high
pressure system over Texas will support fresh to strong
northerly winds over much of the Gulf through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Diffluence aloft supports isolated showers over portions of the
SW Caribbean. Fresh to strong east winds are noted in the latest
scatterometer data over much of the central Caribbean, with the
strongest winds near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh
trades are noted elsewhere across the basin. The pressure
gradient associated with high pressure N of the area should
support fresh to strong NE to E trades W of about 70W elsewhere
through late Wed night. Strong NE winds are expected through the
Windward Passage after Wed. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico
will enter the NW Caribbean Wed night, followed by increasing
strong NE winds and seas building to around 10 ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging dominates the western Atlantic, with a ridge extending
westward into northern Florida. A robust mid/upper level trough
is evident on water vapor imagery extending from a cyclonic
circulation near 30.5N56W southwestward to 23N56W to 19N62W to
vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen N of 23N between 49W
and 55W, with a concentrated area of numerous showers within
about 30 nm of 27N55W. A weak stationary front is located over
the central Atlantic from near 31N39W to 23N47W. Expect
organized shower activity to expand eastward through Wed ahead
of the trough to 45W. A cold front will move off the NE Florida
coast this afternoon, and reach from near 31N73W to Straits of
Florida on Wed morning, and from Bermuda to central Cuba on Thu
morning. Strong NE winds under high pressure will follow behind
the front. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms with
gusty winds will precede the cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell/Aguirre
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net