[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of high pressure in the
central Atlantic and lower pressures over northern Colombia will
allow trades in the SW Caribbean near the coast of Colombia to
reach minimal gale force overnight then subside back to strong
by noon Tuesday. Seas are expected to build to 10-13 ft in this
area. Winds are expected to pulse back to gale force again late
Tue night into Wed morning. Model guidance indicates that the
pulsing to minimal gale will continue each night through the
weekend. Please see latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale force winds are forecast to
commence Tue afternoon in the SW Gulf behind a cold front that
is across the western Gulf. The cold front will reach from the
Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue morning,
from the Straits of Florida across the Yucatan Peninsula to
Veracruz Mexico Tue night, then move SE of the area on Wed.
Minimal gale force NW to N winds are likely near the coast of
Veracruz Tue afternoon, then diminish slightly Tue night. Gale
force winds may return briefly to the same area Wed night, then
diminish significantly on Thu. Please see the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Africa near 06N10W to
04N17W. The ITCZ continues WSW from 04N17W to cross the equator
near 31W. Isolated convection is south of 03N between 25W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Mobile, Alabama to the coast of Mexico
near 22N98W. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are
along a squall line just ahead of the front from the Florida
panhandle to 26N90W. Conditions rapidly dry out behind the front
in strong high pressure centered over Texas. The cold front will
reach the far SE Gulf waters on Tue night, and move to SE of the
area on Wed. The pressure gradient associated with the high over
Texas will support fresh to strong northerly winds over much of
the Gulf through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Diffluence aloft supports isolated showers over portions of the
SW Caribbean. Fresh to strong east winds are noted in the latest
scatterometer data over much of the central Caribbean, with the
strongest winds near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh
trades are noted elsewhere across the basin. The pressure
gradient associated with high pressure north of the area should
support fresh to strong NE to E trades W of about 70W elsewhere
through late Wed night. Strong NE winds are expected through the
Windward Passage after Wed. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico
will enter the NW Caribbean Wed night, followed by increasing
strong NE winds and seas building to around 10 ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging dominates the western Atlantic, with a ridge extending
westward into northern Florida. A robust mid/upper level trough
is evident on water vapor imagery extending from a cyclonic
circulation near 31N58W to Puerto Rico. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms are north of 23N between 52W and 60W. A weak
stationary front is located over the central Atlantic from near
31N39W to 23N47W. Expect organized shower activity to expand
eastward through Wed ahead of the trough to 45W. A cold front
will move off the NE Florida coast on Tue afternoon, and reach
from near 31N73W to Straits of Florida on Wed morning, and from
Bermuda to central Cuba on Thu morning. Strong NE winds under
high pressure will follow behind the front. Numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms with gusty winds will precede the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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