[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning: A gale warning will become in effect in 36 hours
for the SW Gulf in the wake of the next cold front that will move
off the Texas coast around 12 UTC this morning. The cold front
will reach from the Mississippi Delta region to Veracruz by early
this evening before becoming stationary from the Straits of
Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula on Tue night. The front
is forecast to linger across that general area through Thu.
Minimal gale force NW to N winds of 25 to 35 kt are forecast for
the extreme SW Gulf S of 21N W of 94.5W beginning at 18 UTC on
Tue, then diminish to strong winds late Tue night. The gale force
winds are expected to return briefly to the same area on Wed
night. The front will weaken Wed night through Thu. Please see the
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The African monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean near
07N10W and continues to 01N20W. The ITCZ begins near 01N20W and
extends to 03N31W to coast of S America at 01N49W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm N of the
ITCZ between 33W-37W, and within 60 nm N of the axis between
26W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb
high located near 33N85W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds
prevail across the Gulf waters. Scattered showers are moving
across the northwest Gulf ahead of a cold front that is currently
moving through eastern Texas, and quickly approaching the coast.
Dense fog has formed ahead of the front over some portions of the
NW Gulf, north of about 25N and west of 93W. Caution must be
exercised transiting in this area. The front is expected to enter
the northwest Gulf by Monday morning, then it will extend from
Dixie, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Tuesday morning,
and from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula Wed
morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail behind the
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen over portions of the
NW Caribbean assisted by diffluence aloft. Fresh to strong winds
were noted in the latest scatterometer data over much of the
central Caribbean, with the strongest winds being along the coast
of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted in the
elsewhere across the basin. Persistent ridging north of the area
will allow for strong to near-gale force trades to pulse along the
northwest coast of Colombia through the week. The tail end of a
cold front is forecast to reach the northwest Caribbean waters by
late Wednesday night. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds will
prevail across the northwest Caribbean waters through the week as
the front continues moving the west Atlantic waters.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Ridging dominates the west Atlantic anchored by a pair of 1025 mb
high pressure centers located near 32N75W and 29N70W. Diffluence
aloft on the east side of a mid to upper trough over the Florida
Peninsula is supporting scattered showers across the Bahamas from
21N-27N between 72W-78W. At the surface, a trough accompanies this
convection extending from 27N74W to 23N73W. To the east, a
stationary front extends across the east-central Atlantic from
31N39W to 24N45W to 22N58W. Scattered showers are noted within 200
nm to the east of the front mainly north 21N. A 1035 mb high
pressure centered over southwest Portugal adjacent waters extends
a ridge over the eastern Atlantic region north of 20N. The high
pressure over the west Atlantic will shift east to just southwest
of Bermuda through the next 24 hours, then shift north of Bermuda
Monday night allowing a cold front to move off the northeast
Florida coast by Tuesday afternoon. The cold front will reach from
near Bermuda to Straits of Florida Wednesday night and from
27N65W to Central Cuba on Thursday night. Convection and gusty
winds will accompany this front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/Aguirre
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