[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
The trade wind flow in the southern Caribbean is expected to
increase during the next day or two, and these winds are expected
to reach gale force in about 48 hours near the coast of Colombia.
A gale warning is currently in effect for that area.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N10W and
continues to 01N17W. The ITCZ begins near 01N17W to 01S30W to
01N37W to 00N50W. Scattered showers are noted within 100 nm north
of both boundaries between 20W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the Gulf waters in the wake of a
cold front that currently extends across the central-west
Atlantic and central Caribbean. A weakness in the ridge is
analyzed as a surface trough in the far western portion of the
basin, extending from 30N94W to 19N94W. Northwest winds of 20 to
25 kt and scattered showers and thunderstorms exist to the west
of the trough near the coast of Mexico and Texas. Otherwise, the
flow over the Gulf of Mexico is fairly light. Fresh to locally
strong southerly flow will set-up across the western Gulf and
persist through early this weekend ahead on the next cold front
forecast to reach the Texas coast by Sunday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a frontal boundary is stationary and extends into
the Caribbean from 20N75W across western Jamaica to 18N78W to
northeastern Costa Rica 10N83W. This fronts is underneath a mid-
level diffluent flow that is supporting scattered showers within
150 n mi east of the boundary. A combination of the front and a
trough over the tropical east Pacific is producing scattered
showers and thunderstorms south of 12N and west of 75W. Latest
scatterometer data show fresh to strong winds in the northwest
Caribbean behind the front. The frontal boundary is expected to
dissipate by Saturday morning. Strong trade winds will increase
to gale force near the coast of Colombia in about 48 hours, see
Special Features for more details.

...HISPANIOLA...

Partly cloudy skies and scattered showers prevail across the
island as a stalled front lies just to the west of the island.
Since the front is expected to remain near the area, a
continuation of cloudy skies with the potential for scattered
showers are expected through early this weekend. Fresh northeast
winds are expected across the Windward Passage through Saturday
night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic in the
wake of the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is moving across the west Atlantic waters from 30N57W
southwestward to the southern Bahamas near 21N72W then stationary
to the Windward Passage and into the southwestern Caribbean. A
ridge continues to build eastward behind the front and the
pressure gradient between the front and the ridge is supporting 20
to 25 kt winds west of the boundary north of 28N. In the central
Atlantic, an upper- level low is reflected at the surface as a
trough from 27N45W to 21N43w. These features continues to support
scattered moderate convection from 20N-27N between 37W-45W.
Elsewhere, the Azores high dominates the remainder central and
east Atlantic. The front will continue to move towards the central
Atlantic waters through Friday. After that, the front will
dissipate over the central portion of the basin this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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