[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161736
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong artic cold front has moved into the NW Gulf. As of 1500
UTC, the front extends from near Mobile, Alabama to just south of
Brownsville, Texas, and continues across the northern mexican
states. Gusty winds to gale force are noted behind the front along
the coast of Texas and coastal waters. The front will quickly
reach from the Florida panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of
Tampico, Mexico this evening, then move SE of the area early on
Wed. Cold artic offshore northerly flow behind the front will
bring near gale force winds, with frequent gusts to gale force
over the NW Gulf today and tonight, and gale force NW to N winds
near Tampico and Veracruz tonight through early on Wed. A gale
warning is in effect for the western Gulf waters while many winter
storm warnings have been issued along the N Gulf states. Wintry
mix is forecast for central and southern Texas into Louisiana and
the central Gulf coast today.

Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore
Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Liberia,
Africa and continues to 03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to
02N30W to 01N35W to 02N45W to the Equator at 50W into NE Brazil.
Scattered moderate convection is N of the Equator to the coast of
Africa between the Prime Meridian and 07W. Similar convection is
noted from 00N-05N between 35W and 45W, and from 02N-05N between
48W and 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong artic cold front has moved into the NW Gulf. See Special
Features section for more details. A ridge dominates the remainder
of the Gulf waters, and will shift eastward and weaken through
tonight. Visible satellite imagery shows the frontal boundary over
the NW Gulf, and cold air stratocumulus clouds across the remainder
of the area, with persistent low clouds across the eastern slopes
of the Sierra Madre Mountains. Fresh to locally strong NE winds
are noted over the SE waters and the Straits of Florida per
scatterometer data with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere
ahead of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front remains across the basin, and extends from
Camaguey, Cuba to 18N80W to the SW Caribbean near 12N83W. An area
of scattered showers and tstms are noted near the southern end of
the front. Cold air stratocumulus clouds and some transverse high
clouds are observed behind the front over the NW Caribbean while
patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
are seen across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea E of the
front. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong northerly winds
behind the front, and moderate to fresh trade winds east of the
frontal boundary, with the exception of fresh to strong winds near
the coast of Colombia. The front will weaken and dissipate by Wed
morning. Moisture associated with the remnants of the front will
drif westward on Wednesday, increasing the likelihood of showers
over Central America and the NW Caribbean. Strong N winds along
the coast of Nicaragua will slowly diminish to moderate this
evening through Fri night. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse near
the NW Colombia coast each night through Sat night. Large NE
swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlantic
waters until this evening.

...HISPANIOLA...

Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated
showers will prevail for the next couple of days under the
influence of a ridge. A surface trough passing N of Puerto Rico
will produce little convection. Computer model shows increasing
moisture across the island toward the end of the work week as a
cold front approaches from the west.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N66W to 25N72W where it becomes
stationary, then continues across the central Bahamas to eastern
Cuba. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are still noted in the
wake of the front. These winds will gradually diminish today as
the front begins to weaken. A band of low-topped showers is over
the central Bahamas and central Cuba just behind the frontal
boundary. A strong cold front will move off the SE United States
coast on Wed, then weaken as it reaches from near 24N65W to the
Windward Passage by Fri morning. Strong high pres in the wake of
the front will bring strong N to NE winds and building seas NE of
the Bahamas on Thursday.

Strong high pressure of 1042 mb located near Azores at 40N32W
dominates the remainder of the ocean to Africa. Scatterometer data
indicates a large area of fresh to strong trades roughly north of
15N between 20W-60W. A surface trough associated with an upper-
level low extends along 64W/65W N of 24N. A weak low pressure of
1018 mb has developed along the trough axis. Another surface
trough is SE of an upper-level low centered near 29N45W. This
system is generating scattered showers and isolated tstms, mainly
N of 25N between 40W-46W. This trough will drift westward over the
next 24 hours while the strong high pressure will move eastward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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