[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151153
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
552 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea...

A stationary front passes across eastern Cuba near 21N76W into
the Caribbean Sea to 16N80W to 13N81W to the coast of western
Panama near  09N81W. Expect N gale-force winds, and sea heights
ranging from 10-13 feet, from 12N to 14N to the W of 82W until
around 15Z this morning. Gale force winds along the coast of
Nicaragua will diminish to strong by this afternoon, then become
moderate Tue through Fri night. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and
the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends WSW from the Ivory Coast near 05N05E
to 03N10W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 03N25W to
01S34W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
from 01N to 04N between 13W and 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A high pressure center located over the SE CONUS extends a ridge
across the Gulf region. The ridge will slowly move E through
tonight. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds this morning E of
85W will persist through Tue night. A strong cold front will
enter the NW Gulf Tue afternoon, reach from the Florida
panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of Tampico Tue evening
and move to just SE of the area early on Wed. Gales could occur
near Tampico and Veracruz Tue night and Wed. Strong high pres
following in the wake of the front will shift E through Thu
night and weaken.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front reaching  eastern Cuba near 21N76W into the
Caribbean Sea to 16N80W to 13N81W to the coast of western Panama
near  09N81W will weaken and dissipate by Tue morning. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection associated with this
boundary is occurring up to 60 nm W of the front and up to 150
nm E of the front. Gale force winds along the coast of Nicaragua
will diminish to strong by this afternoon, then become moderate
Tue through Fri night. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse near
the NW Colombia coast each night through Fri night. Large NE
swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlc waters
until Tue evening.

...HISPANIOLA...

Relatively dry weather will be in store for the next couple of
days. Expect partly cloudy skies and isolated showers to prevail.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the stationary front
over eastern Cuba will remain there and eventually dissipate as
the front weakens in place. A surface trough passing to the N of
Puerto Rico will produce little in the way of sensible weather as
most of the convection associated with this trough is
concentrated on the NE side of the trough.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N72W across the central
Bahamas and eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Strong N to NE winds W of
the front will gradually diminish through Tue as the front
weakens. A strong cold front will move off the SE United States
coast on Wed, then weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W to the
SE Bahamas by Thu evening. The front will become a westward
moving trough over the far SE waters Fri. Robust high pres
following the front will bring strong N to NE winds and building
seas NE of the Bahamas. These conditions will diminish late Thu
night through Fri.

Otherwise, deep layer high pressure dominates the remainder of
the basin between the stationary front and the African coast.
This is reflected by a 1044 mb surface high centered west of the
Azores near 41N39W. The most recent satellite-derived wind data
indicated a large belt of strong trades from 20N to 32N between
the coast of Africa and 60W. A surface trough extending along
61W/62W from 18N to 25N is tightening the pressure gradient N of
20N and serves and the focus for scattered showers and tstms
from 20N-25N between 48W and 57W.   Another surface trough is
developing to the SE of another upper-level low centered near
27N40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
associated with this system is found from 25N to 30N between 38W-
41W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR/McElroy
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