[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea...

A stationary front passes across SE Cuba, into the Caribbean Sea
to 17N80W, and 09N81W. Expect N gale-force winds, and sea heights
ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, from 12N to 14N to the W of 82W.
Expect fresh-to-strong NW-to-N winds, and sea heights ranging from
8 feet to 10 feet ELSEWHERE W of the stationary front. Please
read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters
Forecast, MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, for more details.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 03N24W,
crossing the Equator along 32W, to 01N34W. Precipitation: Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through Louisiana, to 22N96W in the Gulf of
Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Cold
air stratocumulus clouds cover a large part of the Gulf of Mexico.

The current surface ridge will move E slowly through Monday
night. Fresh-to-locally strong N winds will become moderate-to-
fresh NE-to-E winds in the Gulf from Monday through Tuesday
night. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday afternoon. The front will reach from the Florida
Panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of Tampico Mexico on
Tuesday evening, and then the front will move to just SE of the
area early on Wednesday. It is possible that gale-force winds may
occur near Tampico and Veracruz on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Strong high pressure following in the wake of the front will
shift E through Thursday night and weaken.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes across SE Cuba, into the Caribbean Sea
to 17N80W, and 09N81W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are within 90 nm on either side of the
line from the Windward Passage to 16N79W, to 13N81W, to 09N83W
along the border of Costa Rica and Panama. Rainshowers also are
possible to the NW of the stationary front, in areas of broken low
level clouds.

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, from 73W
eastward, in areas of broken low level clouds in surface
tradewind flow.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 15/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.18 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Curacao.

A stationary front passes across SE Cuba, into the Caribbean Sea
to 17N80W, and 09N81W. The front will weaken and dissipate by
Tuesday morning. Gale-force winds along the coast of Nicaragua
will become strong winds by Monday afternoon, and then moderate
winds from Tuesday through Friday night. Strong winds also will
pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night through Friday night.
Large NE swell will maintain seas at heights that are greater than
8 feet in the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters until Tuesday
evening.

...HISPANIOLA...

The weather conditions that have been occurring during the last
12 hour or so have consisted of the following: scattered low
level clouds, some cumulonimbus clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers with possible thunder.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that a ridge will bring
anticyclonic wind flow to the area for the next two days.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that N-to-NE wind flow
will move across the area during the next two days, around a
Windward Passage/Hispaniola anticyclonic circulation center. The
GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow will
move across the area with an inverted trough, for at least the
next 36 hours or so. E-to-SE wind flow will move across for the
rest of the 48-hour forecast period.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N71W, across the central
Bahamas, and beyond SE Cuba, into the Caribbean Sea. Strong N to
NE winds W of the front will diminish gradually through Tuesday
as the front weakens. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong within 60 nm on either side of the line that passes through
32N69W to 26N72W to 23N74W, and to SE Cuba.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N59W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the
Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between 50W and 70W. A surface
trough is along 60W from 17N to 25N. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 20N to
29N between 50W and 62W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
northward between Africa and 55W. A 1043 mb high pressure center
is near 40N40W.

A strong cold front will move off the SE United States coast on
Wednesday, and then it will weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W
to the SE Bahamas by Thursday evening. The front will become a
westward moving trough in the far SE waters on Friday. Robust high
pressure following the front will bring strong N to NE winds and
building seas NE of the Bahamas. These conditions will diminish
late Thursday night through Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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