[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to
01N27W, to the Equator along 32W, 01N40W, to the Equator along
47W, and into NE Brazil near 01S50W. Precipitation: Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through central Texas, to the coastal
plains of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico, to Honduras. Cold air stratocumulus clouds cover much of
the Gulf of Mexico, except for maybe the NW corner of the area.
A first cold front passes through 32N71W in the Atlantic Ocean,
through central Cuba, to the northern sections of Nicaragua.
Reinforcing cold air, that has been moving through the eastern
half of the Gulf of Mexico during the last 24 hours, is behind a
second cold front that is within 130 nm to the NW of the first
front on the northern end, and within 280 nm to the NW of the
first front on the southern end near NW Cuba.

High pres stretching from the NE United States
southwestward over the area will slowly move eastward through
Mon night. Fresh to locally strong N winds will become moderate
to fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf Mon through Tue night. A
strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Tue afternoon, reach
from the Florida panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of
Tampico Tue evening and move to just SE of the area early on
Wed. Its western portion will be left behind as a trough over
the far western gulf. A large area of strong high pres in the
wake of the front will shift eastward through Thu night and
weaken. The trough over the western gulf will lift northward
near the southern and central Texas coast Thu night through Fri
night, possibly attendant by low pres.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through SE Cuba to 17N80W and 10N81W. A
surface trough is along the line from western Jamaica, to 15N78W
and 11N77W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 90 nm
on either side of the line from SE Cuba, to 15N80W to 09N82W.

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, from 73W
eastward, in areas of broken low level clouds in surface
tradewind flow.

A stationary front extend eastern Cuba near 21N77W to 17N80W to
10N82W will weaken through Mon night. Strong to near gale force N
winds will continue along the coast of Nicaragua through Monday,
then diminish to strong winds Tue morning, and to moderate to
fresh winds during Thu and through Fri night. Otherwise, strong
winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night through the
period. Large NE swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the
tropical Atlc waters through early Tue evening.




...HISPANIOLA...

The weather conditions that have been occurring during the last
12 hour or so have consisted of the following: scattered low
level clouds, some cumulonimbus clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers with possible thunder.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that a ridge will bring
anticyclonic wind flow to the area for the next two days.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that N-to-NE wind flow
will move across the area during the next two days, around a
Windward Passage anticyclonic circulation center. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that the first two- thirds of day one
will consist of anticyclonic wind flow with an Atlantic Ocean-
to-Hispaniola ridge. The rest of day one and all of day two will
consist of NE wind flow, and finally cyclonic wind flow, as an
inverted trough moves across Hispaniola from east to west.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N59W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the
Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between 50W and 70W. A surface
trough is along 59W/60W from 17N to 25N. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 20N to
28N between 50W and 60W.

Strong central Atlantic Ocean high pressure will shift eastward
slowly through Wednesday. A stationary front currently passes
through 32N71W, across the central Bahamas, and beyond SE Cuba.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
within 90 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N69W
to 25N72W, beyond SE Cuba. A cold front will sweep across the NW
waters quickly tonight and on Monday, and it will merge with the
first front on Monday night. Strong N to NE winds in much of the
western part of the area will diminish gradually through Tuesday.
A strong cold front will move off the SE United States coast on
Wednesday, and then it will weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W
to the SE Bahamas by Thursday evening. The front becomes a
westward moving trough in the far SE waters on Friday. This front
also will be followed by strong high pressure and resultant strong
N to NE winds along with building seas NE of the Bahamas. These
conditions will diminish late on Thursday night through Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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