[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of The Ivory
Coast near 05N05W, to 03N12W. The ITCZ continues from 03N12W to
02N20W, to the Equator along 38W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 03N southward
between 11W and 14W. isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers elsewhere from 08N southward between 09W and 42W.

One upper level cyclonic circulation center is in Senegal near
15N13W. A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
18N43W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 24N southward between 40W and 60W. broken to overcast
multilayered clouds cover the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 23N
between 30W and 44W. rainshowers are possible from 08N to 22N
between 37W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is that digging through Alabama, the SE
U.S.A., and the eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico, is
supporting a current cold front that is passing through: the
Florida Panhandle, into the S central Gulf of Mexico, to the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A surface trough is
about 120 nm to the east of the cold front, from the Yucatan
Peninsula northward, beyond the Florida Big Bend. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery.
Rainshowers are possible, in broken low level clouds that cover
the area from 21N from 95W eastward, including across Florida and
into the coastal waters on the Atlantic Ocean side of Florida.

A strong cold front from the Florida Panhandle will move rapidly
E across the remainder of the basin today, with strong winds
expected W of the front. Reinforcing cold air will move through
the eastern Gulf on Saturday. High pres will build behind the
front late this weekend. Another cold front will cross the Gulf
beginning on Tuesday night.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is in the west central part of the area, along
81W/83W from 11N to 17N. Rainshowers are possible from 13N
southward from 80W westward.

The southernmost part of a surface trough is in the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. Rainshowers are in the NW part of the
Caribbean Sea, from 15N northward from 80W westward.

A second surface trough is in the SW corner of the area, along
09N from N Colombia beyond W Panama. Rainshowers are possible from
12N southward, from 75W westward.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere, from 80W eastward,
in areas of broken low level clouds. Many of these areas of clouds
are moving toward the W and NW.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 12/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.13 in
Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.13 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.08 in
San Juan in Puerto Rico. and 0.04 in Guadeloupe and in Trinidad.

A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel
this evening, extending from central Cuba to eastern Honduras on
Saturday morning, then stalling from E Cuba to Costa Rica on
Saturday night. Fresh to locally strong N winds are expected
behind the front on Saturday, increasing to 20-30 kt on Sunday.
Strong winds will pulse near NW Colombia coast each night. Large
swell will affect tropical Atlc waters through Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Strong high pressure centered in the central Atlantic will shift
eastward today. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move
across Florida this evening and extend from 31N72W to E Cuba on
Sunday. Reinforcing cold air will help push the front SE on Sunday
night and Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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