[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico later
tonight with convection. A strong pressure gradient will develop
between the ridge behind the front and lower pressure associated
with the front, which will support strong to gale-force
northerly winds in the northwestern Gulf waters by late tonight.
Gale force winds will spread to the southwest Gulf through
Friday evening.

The cold front will enter the NW Caribbean waters Saturday
morning with fresh to strong winds. The front will then stall
from eastern Cuba SW to NE Nicaragua adjacent waters Sat
evening. A strong pressure gradient developing over northern
Central America will support gale-force winds behind the front
from 10N to 14N during that time continuing through Sunday. See
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa from 08N13W
to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 05N37W to 03N51W.
Scattered showers are from 02S to 10N between 20W and 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to locally fresh return flow is basin-wide ahead of the
next cold front to enter the NW Gulf basin later tonight. A pre-
frontal trough is analyzed from  29N95W to 25N97W with no
convection. Strong to gale-force winds will accompany the cold
front and will spread to the SW Gulf waters through Friday
evening. A reinforcing cold front will move across the north-
central and NE basin Friday evening and across Florida Sat.
Strong northerly winds in the wake of the front will start to
diminish early on Monday. See the special features section for
further details on the front and the gale.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across western Caribbean from 21N86W to
17N84W to 14N82W with scattered showers. An upper-level low
centered over the Bahamas extends its trough along and west of
80W supporting this surface feature. Scattered showers prevail
across eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage and Hispaniola
supported by a diffluent flow aloft. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail across the central and eastern waters, while light to
gentle variable winds cover the western portion of the basin.
Showers will prevail across the northwest Caribbean through
today. The next cold front will enter the basin early this
weekend with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

A broad area of diffluent flow aloft between an upper-level low
centered in the Great Bahama Bank and a ridge covering the
eastern half of the Caribbean support scattered showers across
most of the island. This activity is forecast to continue
through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers prevail over the west Atlantic waters
underneath a broad area of upper-level low pressure and a
diffluent flow aloft. To the east, the tail of a cold front
enters the north-central Atlantic waters near 31N43W to 29N52W,
then weakens to 30N69W. Elsewhere, a surface ridge prevails
anchored by a 1033 mb high near 36N14W. Expect for the cold
front over the central Atlantic to move further south with
showers. The next cold front will come off northeast Florida by
early this weekend with a reinforcing cold front following it on
Saturday night. The front is forecast to extend from near 30N71W
southwest to eastern Cuba by Sunday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

NR
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