[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico this evening
with convection. A strong pressure gradient will develop between
the ridge behind the front and lower pressures with the front,
supporting strong to gale-force northerly winds in the northwestern
Gulf waters by late tonight, then extending to the southwest Gulf
on Friday. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia, Africa near
06N11W to 00N26W. The ITCZ continues from 00N26W to 00N40W to
06N53W. Scattered showers are noted within 500 nm north of these
boundaries between 19W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface high pressure over the west Atlantic waters extends
its ridge across the basin. A low pressure system is developing
over the northern Texas area and extending south reaching the
northwest Gulf waters north of 21N and west of 95W. A surface
trough was analyzed across the Texas coastline and northeast
Mexico with no significant convection. To the east, a surface
trough extends across the Florida Peninsula with scattered
showers. The next cold front is forecast to enter the northwest
portion of the basin by late tonight along with strong to gale-
force winds that will prevail mainly across the western Gulf. A
reinforcing cold front will follow this feature moving across
Florida this weekend. Strong northerly winds in the wake of the
front will diminish by early next week. See the Special Features
section above for details about the gale-force winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends across western Caribbean from 21N86W to
17N84W to 14N82W with scattered showers. An upper-level low
centered over the Bahamas extends its trough along and west of 80W
supporting this surface feature. Scattered showers prevail across
eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage and Hispaniola supported by
a diffluent flow aloft. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across
the central and eastern waters, while light to gentle variable
winds cover the western portion of the basin. Showers will
prevail across the northwest Caribbean through today. The next
cold front will enter the basin early this weekend with
convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

A broad area of diffluent flow aloft between an upper-level low
centered in the Great Bahama Bank and a ridge covering the eastern
half of the Caribbean support scattered showers across most of
the island. This activity is forecast to continue through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers prevail over the west Atlantic waters
underneath a broad area of upper-level low pressure and a
diffluent flow aloft. To the east, the tail of a cold front
enters the north-central Atlantic waters near 31N43W to 29N52W,
then weakens to 30N69W. Elsewhere, a surface ridge prevails anchored
by a 1033 mb high near 36N14W. Expect for the cold front over the
central Atlantic to move further south with showers. The next
cold front will come off northeast Florida by early this weekend
with a reinforcing cold front following it on Saturday night. The
front is forecast to extend from near 30N71W southwest to eastern
Cuba by Sunday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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