[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 05N09W, to 05N15W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W
to 02N24W, 02N36W, and 01N40W. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 03N to 06N between 07W and 21W. isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers elsewhere from 05N
southward from 51W eastward. rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 10N southward between 24W and 60W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 16N40W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 07N to 24N
between 34W and 55W. broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N to
23N between 35W and 55W, and elsewhere from 13N southward between
30W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is digging through the Gulf of Mexico to
the east of 90W. A frontal boundary consists of a 1013 mb low
pressure center that is near 28N87W, a stationary front that
extends from the low pressure center into N Florida, and a cold
front that extends from the low pressure center into the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers from 87W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers also are in the Atlantic Ocean, from
20N northward from 65W westward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds are to the N of 30N88W
25N87W 22N93W 28N96W, moving southward.

The current cold front will drift S through tonight, while
gradually becoming a remnant trough into early Wed. The trough
will drift W through Wed night while dissipating, with return
flow then dominating through early Thu. The next cold front will
enter the NW waters Thu, rapidly shifting across the basin
through the end of the week. Gale-force winds are possible W of
the front in the western Gulf Thu night through Fri morning. A
reinforcing front will move through the eastern Gulf Sat.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough passes through the Windward Passage to W
Jamaica to 12N83W along the coast of Nicaragua. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the NW of
the line from Haiti to 11N83W along the coast of Nicaragua.

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the area, along 10N
between N Colombia and central Costa Rica. rainshowers are
possible from 11N southward from 76W westward.

Rainshowers also are possible elsewhere to the N of the line
15N75W 13N69W 11N60W, in areas of broken low level clouds, that
are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea. Similar clouds and
possible rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 20N
between 53W and 60W.

Moderate to fresh SE winds between Cuba and Jamaica will become
NE-to-E gentle-to-moderate winds tonight. A cold front should
move SE of the Yucatan Channel on Friday, with winds becoming N
moderate to fresh, N of 18N between 76W and 85W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 09/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.52 in
Kingston in Jamaica, 0.28 in Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.09 in
Guadeloupe, 0.07 in Trinidad and in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.03
in San Juan in Puerto Rico and in St. Thomas in the Virgin
Islands, and 0.01 in Freeport in the Bahamas.

...HISPANIOLA...

The moisture from the surface trough, and other westward-moving
broken low level clouds, may help to support rainshowers across
Hispaniola for the next 24 hours or so. Moderate to fresh SE
winds between Cuba and Jamaica will become NE-to-E gentle-to-
moderate winds tonight. A cold front should move SE of the
Yucatan Channel on Friday, with winds becoming N moderate to
fresh, N of 18N between 76W and 85W.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N30W to 31N40W and 31N44W. A
stationary front continues from 31N44W to 31N51W. A dissipating
stationary front continues from 31N55W to 29N60W and 27N65W. A
surface trough continues from 27N65W, across the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and beyond the Windward Passage. Rainshowers are
possible to the north of the line 30N24W 27N40W 20N60W 20N70W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean,
from 10N northward from the frontal trough eastward. A 1026 mb
high pressure center is near 30N38W.

The current frontal trough will approach NE Florida and SE
Georgia through Thu night. High pres will build in the wake of
the trough.
A cold front will move off the E coast of Florida Fri night,
with a reinforcing front moving across the waters W of 72W
through Sat night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Mundell
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