[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 03N30W
to the Equator along 40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers from 06N southward from 40W eastward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 14N48W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 07N to 24N
between 34W and 55W. broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N to
24N between 30W and 50W, and elsewhere from 10N southward between
30W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is digging through the Gulf of Mexico to the
east of 90W. A frontal boundary consists of a 1012 mb low pressure
center that is near 28N87W, a warm front that extends from the low
pressure center to the Florida Panhandle and NE Florida, and a
cold front that extends from the low pressure center into the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers from 90W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers also are in the Atlantic Ocean, from
20N northward from 69W westward.

The low and front will weaken as they continue moving SE today.
The front gradually will become a remnant trough by early
Wednesday. The trough also will dissipate, with return flow
setting up and becoming dominant across the basin Wednesday and
Thursday. The next cold front will reach the NW part of the Gulf
of Mexico on Thursday afternoon and move rapidly across the area
through the end of the week.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening surface trough reaches from the Windward Passage to
SW of Jamaica to 17N81W. A second surface trough extends SSW of
Haiti to 14N77W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong showers
are from 17N to 20N between 74W and 80W, including Haiti and
Jamaica. Isolated showers are elsewhere across the basin.

A cold front should move SE of the Yucatan Channel on Friday,
with winds becoming fresh to strong NW. Fresh to strong winds
north of 18N between the Windward Passage and 83W will diminish
tonight. High pressure centered northeast of the area will slide
eastward and weaken through Friday. This will allow winds and
seas to improve today and tonight across the north central and
NW Caribbean Sea.

...HISPANIOLA...

The moisture from the dissipating stationary front and surface
trough along with a second surface trough to the south will
support showers and isolated thunderstorms across the island
today. High pressure to the north will support NE 20 to 25 kt
winds, with 8-12 ft seas in the area including in the approach
to the Windward Passage, during the next 24 hours or so.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extending from 31N51W to the Windward Passage
is drifting west and weakening. Widely scattered showers are
within 240 nm of the frontal boundary.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the eastern and
central Atlantic Ocean north of 10N. A high pressure ridge is
along 30N, anchored by highs centered near 30N47W and 30N37W.

During the next 24 hours, 20 to 25 knots NE winds and 8 to 11 ft
seas are expected in an area south of 10N between 40W and 55W.
Winds will diminish as the pressure gradient begins to weaken.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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