[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 01N37W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
from 06N southward from 40W eastward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 14N48W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 07N to 24N
between 34W and 55W. broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N to
24N between 30W and 50W, and elsewhere from 10N southward between
30W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The water vapor imagery shows a trough digging through the western
part of the Gulf of Mexico. This trough is supporting a cold front
that passes through SW Louisiana to the Deep South of Texas. A
surface trough extends from a SW Louisiana 1012 mb low pressure
center, toward NE Mexico about 60 nm to the south of the cold
front. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are in the Gulf of Mexico between Florida and 94W, and in the
Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward from 74W westward.

The low and front will weaken as they continue SE into Tuesday
morning. The front will drift S through Tuesday night, while
gradually becoming a remnant trough into early Wednesday. The
trough will drift W through Wednesday night while dissipating,
with return flow then dominating through early Thursday. The
next cold front may enter the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico
on Thursday afternoon, moving rapidly across the area through
the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front reaches the SE Bahamas and the
Windward Passage. A surface trough continues from the Windward
Passage, to western sections of Jamaica, to 15N81W, and 10N81W.
A second surface trough is along 19N73W in Haiti, to 16N75W and
13N76W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 17N to
19N between Haiti and Jamaica. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are elsewhere to the NW of the line that runs from
the Mona Passage to 09N82W at the coast of western Panama.

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in areas of broken low level
clouds, elsewhere to the east of the Mona Passage-to-09N82W line.

High pres in the central Atlantic Ocean will build in the wake of
the current surface trough. A cold front may move SE of the
Yucatan Channel on Friday. The current fresh-to-strong breezes
that have been covering the area from 18N northward between the
Windward Passage and 83W, will be slowing down to moderate, by
tonight. The current high pressure center, that is to north of
the area, will be sliding eastward and weakening. This shift will
allow for winds and seas to improve later this afternoon/tonight
across the north central and NW Caribbean Sea.

...HISPANIOLA...

A dissipating stationary front/surface trough passes through the
Windward Passage. A second surface trough is along 19N73W in
Haiti, to 16N75W and 13N76W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong from 17N to 19N between Haiti and Jamaica. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere to the NW of
the line that runs from the Mona Passage to 09N82W at the coast of
western Panama. The moisture from the dissipating stationary
front/surface trough, and the second surface trough, will support
rainshowers and thunderstorms across the island through at least
tonight. High pressure to the north will support NE 20 to 25 kt
winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, in the area
that is bounded by the points from 22N77W to 29N60W to 29N60W to
20N73W to 22N77W, including in the approach to the Windward
Passage, during the next 24 hours or so.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front from 32N49W to 28N56W. The front becomes dissipating
stationary at 28N56W, and it continues to 24N64W, and to the
northern part of the Windward Passage. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers
are within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the line that passes
through 32N55W to 27N62W to 24N66W, and from 20N to 24N between
60W and 77W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean, from 10N
northward from the cold front/dissipating stationary front
eastward. A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 30N40W.

The forecast for the next 24 hours consists of NE winds 20 to 25
knots, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, in the
area that is bounded by the points from 22N77W to 29N60W to 29N60W
to 20N73W to 22N77W. The wind speeds will slow down, to moderate,
as the surface pressure gradient begins to weaken in 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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