[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1220 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
02N34W, crossing the Equator along 42W, to 01S45W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers from 06N southward from 36W eastward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 14N47W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 07N to 23N
between 34W and 54W. broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 18N
southward between 30W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the basin anchored by a strong high pressure of
1037 mb located near 36N77W. The pressure gradient between the
high pressure to the north and lower pressures over the Caribbean
and Mexico support fresh to strong easterly winds over the
Straits of Florida and eastern two-thirds of the Gulf basin.
Mainly moderate to fresh east to southeast winds prevail
elsewhere. Expect for the next cold front to emerge off the Texas
and Louisiana coasts later today with an accompanying low
pressure area emerging over the north central Gulf tonight.
Fresh northerly winds and building seas of 5-6 ft are expected
west of the low and cold front. The front, low, and associated
winds will weaken on Tuesday. A stronger cold front will cross
the western Gulf on Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the Windward Passage, to
western sections of Jamaica, to 15N81W, and continuing as a
surface trough to 10N81W. Rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 180 nm on either side of the front. Observations
continue to indicate near gale to gale-force winds across the
Windward Passage and approaches. Strong to near-gale force winds
cover the Lee of Cuba, including the Cayman Islands, with seas
as high as 14 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds are over the
south- central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Fresh winds
are occurring elsewhere W of the front, and over the Lesser
Antilles. The entire stationary front will gradually weaken and
transition to a frontal trough through today, as the high
pressure north of the area slides eastward and begins to weaken.
This shift will allow for winds and seas to improve later today
across the north central and NW Caribbean.

...HISPANIOLA...

A stationary front passes through the Windward Passage. A
surface trough is along 72W/73W from 14N to 19N, moving through
Haiti at this time. The moisture from these two features will
support rainshowers and thunderstorms across the island through
at least tonight. High pressure to the north will support 20 to
30 kt NE winds in the northern coastal areas of Haiti through
the rest of this morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front from 32N50W to 29N54W. The front becomes
stationary, and it continues from 29N54W to the Windward
Passage. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
within 240 nm to the east and southeast of the line that passes
through 32N62W to 24N70W, to Haiti. It is possible that some
rainshowers may be in the easternmost parts of the Dominican
Republic. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure
currently over the mid Atlantic shore of the United States and
the stationary front supports near gale to gale-force winds over
an area south of 24N and west of the front to about 75W. Broad
high pressure of 1028 mb centered near 30N36W dominates the
remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic discussion waters.
Fresh trade winds can be found south of 24N W of 25W to 60W, as
well as fresh northerly winds N of the Cabo Verde Islands,
supporting seas of 8 to 13 ft.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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