[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Strong high pressure of 1038 mb over the mid U.S. Atlantic coast
supports strong to gale-force northeast winds mainly south of 25N
and west of a stationary front to 76W that currently extends from
31N55W to 25N64W to 20N72W. The gale includes the Windward
Passage. Seas of 10-13 ft are expected within the area of gale-
force winds. Fresh to strong NE winds are also affecting the
remainder of the waters between the Bahamas and Cuba, and the
Straits of Florida with seas up to 12 ft outside the Bahamas.
Winds will drop just below gale force early Mon morning. Conditions
across the entire region will then improve further Mon night as
the high shifts east and weakens and the front dissipates. See the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The aforementioned high pressure is also currently bringing
strong to gale-force northeasterly winds in the lee of east-
central Cuba, including the Cayman Islands. Gale winds are also
over the Windward Passage and approaches to the passage north of
16N and west of the stationary front to 76W. Seas are likely
peaking around 10-12 ft near the Cayman Islands. Winds will drop
just below gale force early Monday, and will continue to improve
through Mon night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from the Africa coast
near 11N15W and continues to 03N22W. The Intertropical
Convergence Zone extends from 03N22W to 02N41W. Isolated moderate
convection is from the equator north to 09N between 28W and 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the basin anchored by a strong high pressure of
1038 mb located near 36N77W. The pressure gradient between the
high pressure to the north and lower pressures over the Caribbean
support fresh to strong easterly winds over the Straits of Florida
and eastern two-thirds of the basin. Mainly moderate to fresh
easterly winds prevail elsewhere. Expect for the next cold front
to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts on Monday, followed
by mainly fresh northerly winds and building seas of 5-6 ft. The
front and associated winds will weaken on Tuesday. A stronger cold
front will cross the western Gulf on Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends across the Windward Passage near 20N72W
to 18N78W to 10N81W. Showers are within 180 nm of the front.
Earlier scatterometer data indicated that strong to gale-force
winds are occurring over the Lee of Cuba, and also are expected to
be now occurring across the Windward Passage and approaches. Fresh
to strong winds are over the south- central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia. The stationary front will slowly weaken during
the next few days. Strong high pressure building southeast toward
the U.S. Atlantic coast will continue supporting the gale- force
winds between Jamaica, the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage
and approaches through early Monday. Please see the Special
Features section for more details.

...HISPANIOLA...

A stationary front is through the Windward Passage and a surface
trough is crossing the island. The moisture from these two
features will support showers and thunderstorms over the island
through at least Monday. High pressure building to the north will
support 20 to 30 kt NE winds over the northern coast of Haiti
tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the area of discussion near 31N55W and
extends to 20N72W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
500 nm west of the front. The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure over eastern U.S. and the stationary front supports
20 to 30 kt NE winds and seas of 8 to 13 ft in unprotected waters
south of 25N and west of the front as well as strong to gale
force winds S of 25N west of the front to about 76W, including the
Windward Passage. This gale will continue until early Monday.
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. To
the east, a 1028 mb surface high centered near 32N36W supports a
broad area of fresh to strong easterly trades south of 22N over
the central and eastern Atlantic. The combination of these winds
and a northwest swell from a departing storm system over the
northern Atlantic supports seas of 8 to 13 ft over the majority of
the Atlantic discussion waters between the Cabo Verde Islands and
77W. Higher seas of 12 to 18 ft are occurring N of the Cabo Verde
Islands under strong northerly winds on the eastern periphery of
the Atlantic high pressure.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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