[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
613 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Strong high pressure of 1040 mb building SE toward the U.S.
Atlantic coast will support strong to minimal gale force NE winds
through the Windward Passage and just W of stationary front
currently extending from 31N56W to the easternmost tip of Cuba.
The strongest winds are expected W of front to the S of the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and in the approach to the Windward Passage
Sun through Sun evening. Seas are forecast to build to 11-12 ft
within the area of gale force winds. Fresh to strong NE winds are
expected to also affect the remainder of the waters between the
Bahamas and Cuba, and the Straits of Florida. Conditions across
the region will improve Mon night through Tue as the high shifts E
and weakens. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The aforementioned high pressure will also bring strong to minimal
gale force NE winds in the lee of east-central Cuba, including
also the Cayman Islands tonight through Sunday morning. Seas are
forecast to build to 10-12 ft near the Cayman Islands by Sun
morning. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Liberia,
Africa and continues to 01N24W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone extends from 01N24W to the Equator at 30N to NE Brazil near
02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-05N
between 34W-38W. Convection is limited elsewhere.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the entire Gulf region anchored by a strong
high pressure of 1040 mb located over the Ohio Valley. A surface
trough has developed across the central Gulf. The most recent
scatterometer pass showed moderate to fresh easterly winds E of
the trough, and gentle to moderate winds W of the trough. Patches
of low level clouds are noted near the trough axis, and across the
western Gulf and the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains.
The pressure gradient between the trough and the strong high
pressure will produce fresh to strong NE-E winds across the
Straits of Florida and SE Gulf tonight through late Sun. The high
pressure will then shift E into the W Atlc late Sun and Mon to
bring fresh to strong return flow across the central Gulf early
Sun through Monday. The next cold front is forecast to emerge off
the Texas and Louisiana coasts on Monday followed by mainly fresh
northerly winds and building seas of 5-6 ft.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the easternmost tip of Cuba across
Jamaica to W Panama near 09N79.5W. Clusters of moderate convection
are noted along the the frontal boundary, particularly from 10N
to 15N between 78W and the front. Abundant cloudiness with embedded
showers are noted across much of Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands in association with this front. Patches of low level
moisture with embedded showers are also noted over the eastern
Caribbean where a surface trough is analyzed along 65W. Latest
scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong winds across the
Windward Passage, and across the south-central Caribbean near the
coast of Colombia. The stationary front will slowly weaken and
drift W to the S of 16N during the next few days. Strong high pres
building SE toward the U.S. Atlantic coast will support gales
between Jamaica and lee of Cuba tonight through Sun morning.
Please, see Special Features section for more details.

...HISPANIOLA...

Moisture associated with a frontal boundary currently located over
eastern Cuba will continue to support some shower activity across
the island tonight and Sunday. A patch of low-level moisture
currently over the eastern Caribbean will also reach the island
on Sunday keeping the likelihood of showers. Strong high pres building
SE toward the U.S. Atlantic coast will support strong to minimal
gale force winds through the Windward Passage on Sunday. Please, see
Special Features section for more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 1800 UTC, a stationary front extends from 31N56W to the
easternmost tip of Cuba into the Caribbean Sea. A wide band of
cloudiness with showers and likely isolated tstms is associated
with the front affecting much of the Bahamas and Cuba. West of
the front, a ridge dominates the SW N Atlantic, including Florida
and the Bahamas. Strong NE winds are noted W of the front across
the Bahamas, and the Old Bahama Channel. These winds will expand
in coverage through tonight as strong high pres builds SE toward
the eastern U.S. coast. Gale force winds are expected NW of front
to the S of the Turks and Caicos and in the approach to the
Windward Passage Sun through Sun evening. Please, see Special
Features section for more details. The remainder of the central
and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1030 mb high centered SW of the Azores near 32N37W.
Mainly fresh to locally strong trades are seen along the southern
periphery of the ridge between the coast of Africa and the Lesser
Antilles based on scatterometer data and buoy observations.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR

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