[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061719
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1219 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A frontal boundary will stall across the southwest Atlantic
including the approach to the Windward Passage within the next
30-36 hours. The pressure gradient in the vicinity of this
feature will induce gale-force winds south of 22N and west of
front to 74W. Seas will be 8-12 ft in this area. These conditions
will diminish by early Monday. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

The same frontal boundary inducing the gale-force winds over the
southwest Atlantic is also enhancing winds over the Caribbean
mainly north of 18N between 77W-82W starting on Sunday 07/1800
UTC. Seas will be 8-13 ft in this area. These conditions will
diminish by Monday morning. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to
02N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 02N25W to
to the South American coast near 00N49W. Scattered showers are
noted from 00N-12N between 28W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the entire basin anchored by a 1039 mb
high pressure located over southern Wisconsin near 43N91W. The
only feature present in the basin is a surface trough that extends
from 25N90W to 22N90W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail
across the whole area. Little change is expected through the next
24-48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the Windward Passage near 20N73W
to 16N78W to the southwest Caribbean near 10N80W. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds are noted west of the front, while fresh
easterly winds prevail east of the front. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm of the front. Expect for the stationary
front to linger through Sunday, then dissipate on Monday. A Gale
Warning has been issued for the northwest Caribbean. Please refer
to the section above for details.

...HISPANIOLA...

Cloudiness with embedded showers will persist across the island
today due to the frontal boundary currently extending across the
Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds are expected through
the area and northern coast exposures through Sunday. These winds
will reach gale-force on Sunday evening. See the section above for
more details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail end of a stationary front is over the west Atlantic along
30N between 70W-73W. To the east, another stationary front extends
from 31N57W to 20N72W. Scattered showers are noted along and west of
this front between 60W-75W. The remainder of the basin is under
the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a pair of 1032 highs
centered near 32N37W and 36N30W. Expect during the next 30-36
hours for the pressure gradient to tighten near the easternmost
front inducing gale-force winds south of 22N and west of the front
to 74W. Please refer to the section above for details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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