[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1237 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front extends into the discussion area from the hurricane-
force 952 mb low centered off the mid-Atlc coast near 43N67W. The
cold front reaches from 32N61W S-SW to 22N70W through the
Windward Passage. Near gale to gale force W-NW winds are occurring
generally N of 30N between 71W-77W, diminishing below gale force
by Friday as the low pressure area moves further northeastward.
See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 04N08W
to 05N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N15W to 06N20W to the Equator near 39W to the coast of South
America near 03S41W. Only isolated convection is occurring,
mainly N of the axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails from central Arkansas to S Texas
producing 10-20 kt northerly flow over the Gulf of Mexico.
Broken to overcast cold air stratocumulus clouds covers the Gulf
S of 28N. Radar imagery shows isolated moderate convection over
the far NW Gulf and S Texas. In the upper levels, a very large
trough is over the Gulf with axis from the Florida Panhandle to
the Bay of Campeche. Upper level moisture and scattered high
clouds are over the N Gulf N of 25N. Strong subsidence is S of
25N. Expect cold air advection to persist through Friday evening,
then switch to easterly surface flow and warming thereafter.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the Windward Passage near 20N74W
to 16N78W to a 1010 mb low over the the SW Caribbean near 10N81W.
15-25 kt northerly winds are N of the front. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the low. Isolated
moderate convection is over the central Caribbean from 14N-17N
between 74W-79W. In the upper levels, the base of a large trough
is over the far NW Caribbean. An upper level high centered over
the Leeward Islands is producing ridging over the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea. Expect the stationary front to linger through
Friday, gradually dissipating Saturday into Sunday. Fresh to
strong winds are expected W of the boundary through the upcoming
weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated tstms are expected through Friday
across Hispaniola as a stationary front is analyzed just to the
NW of northern Haiti. Expect NE winds to increase over the
Windward Passage and northern coastal exposures, persisting
through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Beside of the Special Features cold front across the SW North
Atlantic, a reinforcing cold front is off the Florida coast from
31N75W to 29N80W. The remainder of the central and eastern
Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a
1037 mb high centered W of the Azores near 40N39W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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