[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 AM EDT Mon Oct 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
10N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 10N24W to
09N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-11N between
28W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb
high near 28N94W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
winds across the basin. Winds will become light to gentle across
the western Gulf as the high moves eastward during the next 24
hours. By Monday, southerly return flow will re-establish itself
across the northwest Gulf as the next frontal boundary is
expected to reach the southeast Texas, but stall and weaken on
Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends into the northwest Caribbean from the
western Atlantic across central Cuba to Belize. Scattered showers
are noted within 200 nm southeast of the front. The Lesser
Antilles remain fairly tranquil under mostly clear skies. The cold
front will stall and dissipate from Haiti to Nicaragua through
Tuesday. Showers are expected with the front.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring across the
far west portion of the island due to a cold front approaching.
A favorable upper-level divergent environment is helping enhance
the ongoing convection.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of Philippe were absorbed into a cold front that
extends into the discussion area from 31N72W to 22N78W. The front
is supported aloft by a deep mid-level trough over the eastern
US. A pre-frontal trough extends from 29N73W to 21N75W. Scattered
showers are occurring within 200 nm to the east of the front and
trough. Farther east, a mid-level trough supports a 1010 mb
surface low centered near 31N47W. A cold front extends from the
low to 23N55W. Scattered showers are noted with this front between
41W-54W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
surface ridge axis extending from the Azores to 20N39W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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