[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Remnants of Tropical Storm Philippe were centered near 31.0N
75.0W at 2100 UTC or about 250 nm S of Cape Hatteras NC moving
NNE at 40 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is along a surface trough S
of the storm from 24N-32N between 70W-73W. See the NHC Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the
final NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/
WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
08N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N21W
to 07N48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 03N-
10N between 32W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A vigorous mid-level trough extends from the Great Lakes region
south-southeastward to over southern Florida. A cold front has
moved SE of the region, with fresh to strong northerly winds
over most of the basin. Winds are expected to gradually diminish
overnight as the front pushes farther east and high pressure
builds in across the central Gulf. Winds will become light to
gentle across the western Gulf as the high moves eastward. By
Monday, southerly return flow will re-establish itself across
the NW Gulf as the next frontal boundary is expected to reach
the SE Texas coastal plain but stall and weaken on Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends into the NW Caribbean from the western
Atlantic across central Cuba to Belize. Farther east...a pre-
frontal surface trough extends from eastern Cuba to offshore of
NE Nicaragua near 16N81W. Low-level moisture convergence in the
vicinity of the surface trough along with middle to upper level
divergence in association with the ridging aloft are generating
scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 17N between 66W-81W.
The Lesser Antilles remain fairly tranquil under mostly clear
skies. The cold front will stall and dissipate from Haiti to
Nicaragua through Tuesday, with showers diminishing along it.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring across the
island this evening due to a surface trough approaching the area
from the west and an existing surface trough analyzed across the
eastern portion of the island along 70W. A favorable upper level
divergent environment is helping enhance the ongoing convection.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Philippe is becoming absorbed into a cold front extending into
the discussion area from 32N77W extending southward across the
NW Bahamas to central Cuba. he cold front is supported aloft by
a deep mid-level trough over the eastern US. Scattered showers
and tstms are occurring in association with Philippe and the
front from 24N-32N between 70W-73W. Farther east...a mid-level
trough along 51W supports an occluding 1010 mb low centered near
30N48W. A cold front extends from the low to 23N59W. Scattered
showers along the front, and a large area of widely scattered
showers is SE of the front from 20N-29N between 41W-47W. The
remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a
surface ridge axis extending from the Azores to 22N39W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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