[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
646 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Tropical Storm Philippe...

Tropical Storm Philippe was centered near 25.0N 81.0W at 0900
UTC, moving east-northeast at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Minimum sea level pressure is 1000 mb.
The tropical storm will continue moving rapidly northward ahead
of an approaching cold front. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is east of the center north of 18N between 70W-80W. Please see the
latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33
KNHC and the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...Gale Warning over the SW Gulf of Mexico...

The pressure gradient over the southwest Gulf continues to be
strong enough to support gale-force winds behind the frontal
boundary south of 21N and west of 95W. These conditions were noted
in scatterometer data. These winds will diminish in the afternoon
hours. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, listed
under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 13N21W. The Intertropical
Convergence Zone extends from 13N21W to 07N38W to 08N54W. A
surface trough extends from 13N53W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 02N-10N between 18W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from northwest Florida to the Bay of Campeche
with minimal shower activity associated with the front. A gale
warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf behind the front. See
the section above for details. Fresh to strong northerly winds
and 8-14 ft seas are elsewhere. T.S. Philippe is located over the
Straits of Florida, producing convection mainly east of of 83W.
The cold front will continue moving southeast across the basin
today kicking T.S. Philippe northeast into the Atlantic. High
pressure building behind the front will prevail across the basin
through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends south of T.S. Philippe from Havana Cuba
to 16N81W. Scattered moderate convection prevails north of 15N
between 77W-85W. To the east, a surface trough extends from the
Atlantic through eastern Hispaniola to near 14N70W with scattered
showers mainly north of 16N. Scattered showers associated with
the EPAC's monsoon trough prevails in the southwest Caribbean
south of 11N between 76W-84W. Mostly cloudy skies and a few
showers prevail across the remainder of the basin. Expect marine
conditions to rapidly improve in the west Caribbean tonight and
through Sunday as T.S. Philippe moves north away from the area.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are noted across the eastern portion of the
island due to a surface trough approaching the area. This trough
will move slowly westward increasing showers across the whole
island through the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection prevails across the west Atlantic
mainly west of 70W related to T.S. Philippe. To the east, a cold
front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N48W to 24N53W.
Scattered showers are noted along and east of the front. Surface
ridging prevails elsewhere. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico
will cross the Florida peninsula today, and T.S. Philippe will
move rapidly northward ahead of the front with widespread active
convection and gusty winds near the center moving across the
northwest Bahamas by the morning hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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