[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen was centered near 19.6N 84.2W
or about 287 nm south-southwest of Havana Cuba at 0900 UTC,
moving north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts
to 40 kt. Minimum sea level pressure is 1005 mb. Numerous
moderate convection is north of 17N and west of 80W, affecting
Cuba and the Cayman Islands at this time. The system is not
classified as a tropical cyclone at this time. Heavy rain will
spread northward across southern Florida through the next 24
hours. See the latest NHC Forecast Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

A cold front extends across the NW Gulf of Mexico from 29N92W to
21N97W. The front will continue pushing across the remainder of
the Gulf through Sunday, with gale force winds expected to develop
south of 26N west of the front later today, then continue through
Saturday night. Strong northerly winds are expected elsewhere
west of the front this weekend. See the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 11N16W to 05N44W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-10N between 20W-36W. A
surface trough extends from 13N48W to 06N51W, with isolated
showers within 90 nm of the trough axis along 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving over the northwest Gulf, with gale force
winds expected to develop east of southern Mexico today.
Potential T.C. Eighteen is centered over the west Caribbean
generating scattered moderate convection across the Yucatan
Channel and Florida Straits. See the section above for more
details about these features. Isolated showers are noted along the
cold front. Ahead of the front, a surface ridge prevails supporting
mostly fair weather over the remainder of the Gulf. The front
will push across the entire basin this weekend, with fresh to
strong northerly winds over most of the Gulf waters mostly behind
the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is producing widespread
convective activity in the northwest Caribbean, and is expected
to move northward through the next 24 hours. Refer to the section
above for details. A surface trough extends across the eastern
Caribbean from 18N67W to 12N69W with isolated showers mostly over
the northern portion of the trough. The EPAC monsoon trough
extends across Central America supporting scattered moderate
convection south of 12N between 76W-84W. Mostly cloudy skies and a
few showers prevail across the remainder of the basin. Expect
marine conditions to improve in the west Caribbean by tonight and
Sunday as Potential T.C. Eighteen moves north.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. A surface
trough is over Puerto Rico with isolated showers. This trough
will move slowly westward and reach eastern Hispaniola today,
increasing showers across the island through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal system extends over the west Atlantic analyzed as a cold
front from 31N59W to 25N65W, then as a stationary front from that
point to 23N75W. Isolated showers are noted along the cold front.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1016 mb high near 25N51W and a 1018 mb high near
25N28W. Expect for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen to bring
strong winds and widespread inclement weather to the Bahamas this
weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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