[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
157 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 mb low is centered off the coast of Honduras near 17N83W.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development today and Saturday, and a tropical depression could
form as the system moves northward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Increasing upper-level winds will make conditions less
favorable when the system moves north of Cuba and merges with a
cold front on Sunday. Interests in the Cayman Islands and central
and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and
portions of Cuba during the next day or two. These rains are
forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and
the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday
night and Sunday. There is a a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation within 48 hours.

...GALE WARNING...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front has just reached the NW Gulf of
Mexico. On Saturday, the front will extend from 30N87W to 26N92W
to 22N95.5W to 20.5N96W to 18.5N95W. A gale will form S of 25N W
of front with NW to N winds 25-35 kt, and seas 8-12 ft. See
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N14W to
10N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
10N17W to 06N30W to 04N40W to 05N47W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 04N-09N between 22W-27W.
A surface trough extends from 13N43W to 05N47W. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the trough axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front is along the Texas coast from 30N95W
to 27N97W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1021
mb high is centered over North Carolina near 35N77W. Surface
ridging extends SW to the NE Gulf of Mexico. Patches of stratocumulus
clouds are over the W Gulf W of 88W. Mostly fair weather is over
the remainder of the Gulf. In the upper levels, an upper level
trough is over the W Gulf with axis along 101W supporting the
Texas frontal system. Strong subsidence is over Texas, the entire
Gulf of Mexico, and Florida. Expect in 24 hours a gale to form
over the SW Gulf. See above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 mb low is centered off the coast of Honduras near 17N83W.
See above. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the W
Caribbean from 12N- 21N between 79W-87W, and from 08N-12N between
75W-79W. Further E, a surface trough is over the E Caribbean from
Puerto Rico at 19N65W to Venezuela at 10N67W. Scattered showers
are E of the trough axis to 60W. Of note in the upper levels, a
small upper level low is centered over the E Caribbean near 14N69W
with subsidence. Expect the low off Honduras to be the dominate
weather feature for the next 48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

A quasi-stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 23N71W to E
Cuba near 20N76W. Prefrontal showers are within 180 nm SE of the
front, now reaching W Hispaniola. In addition, a surface trough is
over Puerto Rico with showers. This trough is moving W towards E
Hispaniola.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N63W to 23N71W. A
quasi-stationary front continues to E Cuba near 20N76W. Scattered
showers are within 150 nm E of the front. Further E, a cold front
is over the E Atlantic from 31N20W to 28N25W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the front. Of note in the upper levels, an
upper level high is centered over the tropical Atlantic near
13N27W. Expect the two fronts to move E over the next 24 hours
with showers. More importantly, expect inclement weather over Cuba
and the Bahamas Saturday and Sunday due to the Honduras Low.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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