[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A center of low pressure interacting with a stationary front off
the coast of NE Nicaragua and E Honduras. Numerous heavy showers
and scattered tstms associated with this system are currently
affecting E Honduras, portions of Nicaragua, the Cayman Islands,
Jamaica, portions of Cuba, SW Haiti and the Windward Passage.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development on Friday and Saturday as the system moves slowly
northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rainfall over the aforementioned territories during the next day
or two. These rains are forecast to spread northward across
portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the
northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. There is a medium
chance for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within
the next 48 hours.

...GALE WARNING...

A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico Friday
afternoon, then extend from the Florida panhandle to the western
Bay of Campeche Saturday. Gale force northerly winds are expected
S of 23N W of the front starting early Sunday morning through
Sunday night.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N14W to
06N30W to 09N43W, then resumes W of a surface trough near 09N46W
to 09N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-09N E of 30W.
Similar convection is from 10N-13N between 48W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high off the coast of
Georgia extends SW and extends across most of the basin, thus
providing return flow. Latest scatterometer data show fresh SSE
winds in the NW basin and gentle to moderate return flow
elsewhere. The strongest winds in the NW side of the basin is due
to a tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and building low
pressure associated with the next cold front to come off the coast
of Texas Friday afternoon. The front will then push across the
remainder of the basin through Sunday night. Fresh to strong N
winds will accompany the passage of the front with near to gale
force winds developing near Veracruz and the W Bay of Campeche.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front in the SW N Atlc extends across the E tip of Cuba SW
to adjacent waters near 19N76W where it stalls continuing SW to a
1008 mb low centered just E of Honduras near 15N83W. Numerous
heavy showers and scattered tstms associated with this system are
currently affecting E Honduras, portions of Nicaragua, the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, portions of Cuba, SW Haiti and the Windward
Passage. There is a medium chance for this system to develop into
a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. See special features.
Over the E basin, a middle to upper level low support a surface
trough from 19N64W to 12N65W. Isolated showers are within 210 nm
either side of the trough axis. Except for fresh to near gale
force winds in the W of the front and in the vicinity of the low,
gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

A stationary front S of eastern Cuba will drift back to the NW
Caribbean Friday as an area of low pressure develops SW of
Hispaniola. This will increase the chances for showers mainly over
Haiti, but heavy downpours are expected to remain west of the
island through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the western Atlantic extends from 30N67W to E
Cuba near 20N74W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm
east of the front. The northern part of the front will weaken in
the central Atlantic Friday, while the southern part stalls and
drifts NW through Saturday. A shear line over the eastern
Atlantic extends from 28N28W to 21N49W. Isolated showers are
within 60 nm of the boundary. A surface trough is analyzed south
of 12N along 44W in the central Atlantic. It will drift westward
through Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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