[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico Friday evening. On
Saturday, the front will extend from 30N87W to 23N95W to 21N96W
to 19N95W. A gale will form S of 23N W of front with NW to N
winds 30-35 kt, and SEAS 9-12 FT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
08N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N20W to 06N39W. The ITCZ continues W of a surface trough from
06N42W to the coast of South America near 06N54W. Scattered
moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 03N- 06N
between 12W-18W. Widely scattered moderate convection is in the
vicinity of the surface trough from 05N-15N between 37W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the Florida Panhandle near
30N86W. 10-15 kt anticyclonic surface winds are over the Gulf of
Mexico with fair weather. Another 1020 mb high is centered over
central Mexico near 22N100W. An area of scattered to broken cold
air stratocumulus clouds are over the S Gulf from 21N-25N between
82W- 92W. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the
E Gulf with axis along 80W supporting the frontal system now over
the W Atlantic. Strong subsidence is over Texas, the entire Gulf
of Mexico, and Florida. Expect in 24 hours for the surface high
over the Florida Panhandle to move to North Carolina. The next
cold front will enter the NW Gulf in 30 hours, or Friday evening,
with showers. A gale will form W of the front over the SW Gulf in
48 hours, or Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from E Cuba near 21N76W to
to NE Honduras near 16N85W. A 1009 mb low is over NE Honduras
near 15N83W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 150 nm S of front, to include Jamaica. In addition, widely
scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean from 09N-
15N between 78W-84W. Further E, a surface trough is over the E
Caribbean from 18N63W to 10N63W. Scattered showers are E of the
trough axis. Hispaniola and Puerto Rico remain with fair weather.
Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered
over the E Caribbean near 13N67W with strong subsidence. Expect
the surface low over NE Honduras to move slowly N for the next 48
hours to W Cuba, with continued convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Northerly dry air aloft will support fair weather across the
island through Friday. Moderate trades will also persist.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N69W to E Cuba near
21N76W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm E of the
front. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N23W to 25N30W
to 22N38W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Of
note in the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over
the tropical Atlantic near 11N39W. Expect the two fronts to move
E over the next 24 hours with convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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