[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 19N42W to 09N45W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded
in abundant moisture as seen on SSMI Imagery. There are distinct
surface and 700 mb troughs. Isolated convection is within 240
nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 20N75W to 09N77W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is embedded
in abundant moisture as seen on SSMI Imagery. There is a well
defined surface trough, and a broad 700 mb trough. Scattered
moderate convection is from 14N-19N between 75W-80W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N84W to 10N85W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded
in abundant moisture as seen on SSMI Imagery. There are distinct
surface and 700 mb troughs. Scattered moderate convection is
from 14N-19N between 80W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to
11N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
11N20W to 07N30W to 10N45W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N-09N between 31W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the eastern U.S. extends a surface ridge into
the NE Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is over the W Gulf from
26N95W to 18N92W. Scattered moderate convection is NE of the
trough from 21N-26N between 90W-94W, and S of Louisiana from 27N-
29N between 89W-94W. Diffluence E of an upper level trough over
Texas and the W Gulf along 100W is enhancing the convection over
the W Gulf of Mexico. An upper level ridge is over the E Gulf
with axis along 82W. Strong subsidence is over north and central
Florida. Expect moderate to occasional fresh E-SE winds over the
Gulf today as the surface ridge remains in place.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea. See above. In addition,
the eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over Costa
Rica and Panama producing isolated convection. A large upper
level high is centered over the NW Caribbean near 19N81W with
abundant upper level moisture. Scattered moderate convection is
over E Cuba. Strong subsidence is over the E Caribbean E of 72W,
including Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands. Expect fair weather to
continue over Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands today.

...HISPANIOLA...

Tropical waves are west of the area. Fair weather is over E
Hispaniola, and decreasing showers are over W Hispaniola mostly
due to the upper level high. Fresh to strong trades are expected
through the weekend as high pressure builds in N of the region.
Scattered showers possible in the afternoon and evening hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends over the W Atlantic from 31N58W to 24N73W.
Scattered showers are within 200 nm NW of the front. Strong high
pressure is centered over the Azores, and high pressure extends
into the Atlc to around 68W west of the cold front. An upper
level low centered in the central Atlc near 22N42W is producing
scattered showers within 600 nm E of the center due to upper
level diffluence.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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