[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180505
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave extends from 06N58W to 14N57W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with shortwave 700 mb troughing between
56W-61W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave
axis near 10N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is from 09N-14N between 52W-61W.

A tropical wave extends from 07N65W to 15N65W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with shortwave 700 mb troughing between
63W-67W and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave
axis near 14N. Isolated moderate convection is from 13N-16N
between 63W-68W.

A tropical wave extends from 04N82W to 14N83W moving W at 10-15
kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing over the SW
Caribbean Sea. Dry NE to E flow aloft is noted on water vapor
imagery on the southeastern periphery of an upper level ridge
anchored near 18N81W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 08N-16N between 80W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
06N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N20W to 07N27W to 06N33W to 08N39W to 05N52W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 21W-29W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 32W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends from Lake Okeechobee westward to 27N88W
then curves SW to 24N93W to the coast of southern Mexico near
18N94W. The front is supported aloft by a middle to upper level
trough progressing eastward over the NE Gulf waters and northern
Florida this evening. Most convection...scattered showers and
isolated tstms...are occurring across eastern portions of the
basin S of 28N E of 87W...including the central and southern
Florida peninsula. Other isolated showers and tstms are occurring
across the SW Gulf S of 21N between 93W-95W in the vicinity of the
front. The front is expected to drift SE through the next couple
of days and gradually become diffuse by Wednesday night. Fresh to
strong N-NE winds will prevail through Wednesday and then weaken
slightly into moderate to occasional fresh through early Thursday.
Surface ridging is expected to remain in place across the SE
CONUS the remainder of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Caribbean
near 18N81W and is providing mostly dry air aloft between 69W-
80W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring S
of 18N W of 80W in association with a tropical wave along
83W...and N of 18N W of 85W in association with a surface trough
offshore of the Yucatan peninsula along 87W. Farther east...
another tropical wave along 66W is providing for isolated showers
and tstms E of 68W...while a third tropical wave remains to the E
of Windward Islands along 57W. The third wave carries more active
convection that is expected to impact the Lesser Antilles
Wednesday through early Thursday. Elsewhere...moderate to fresh
trades prevail and are expected to persist through Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...
A narrow upper level trough axis extends along 69W over the island
between two upper level anticyclonic circulations...one centered
near 21N63W and the other centered over the western Caribbean Sea
near 18N81W. Most of the island is under fair skies and tranquil
weather for the overnight period...but looking ahead...a tropical
wave will skirt S of the island Wednesday into Wednesday night and
bring a higher potential for shower and tstm activity into
Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 32N70W SW to the Florida peninsula
near 27N80W and continues to slowly drift eastward. The front is
supported aloft by a middle to upper level trough axis extending
from over the offshore waters of the Carolinas southwestward to
over the NE Gulf of Mexico waters. Scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring primarily N of the front and W of 77W south of
the front. A pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed from 23N71W to
32N66W and continues to provide focus for widely scattered showers
and isolated tstms from 22N-32N between 63W-70W. The remainder of
the central and eastern Atlc are under the influence of a surface
ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 33N37W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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