[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A low pressure system located about 100 miles northeast of the
Turks and Caicos Islands is gradually becoming better defined.
Associated thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little
better organized this morning, and gale-force winds have been
occurring in squalls northeast of the center. Some development of
this low will be possible during the next day or so while it moves
generally northward over the western Atlantic. However, upper-
level winds are expected to become unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation by late Tuesday, and the system is likely to
merge with a front and become extratropical on Wednesday. There is
a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.

As of 1500 UTC a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 31N86W to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 26N94W to Tampico Mexico
near 21N98W. The front will stall from Tampa Bay to the western
half of the Bay of Campeche early Tue. A tight pressure gradient
and cool dry air associated with the front will allow N winds
funneling along the coast of Mexico to reach minimal gale force
from Tampico to Veracruz Monday into late Tuesday, with seas
reaching 8 to 14 ft.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 15N46W to 04N48W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in an area
of moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in
a distinct surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Clusters of
scattered moderate convection are from 08N-13N between 44W-50W.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 17N54W to 07N56W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in an area
of moderate moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave is in
a distinct surface trough, and a weak 700 mb trough. Scattered
moderate convection is from 10N-15N between 51W-58W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N73W to 10N74W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in an
area of abundant moisture as noted on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave
is in a distinct surface trough, and a distinct 700 mb trough.
Isolated moderate convection is over Haiti, and S of Jamaica.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
11N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
11N23W to 07N33W to 08N47W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, widely scattered moderate convection is S
of the monsoon trough from 05N-10N between 10W-20W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ between
33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front is over the N Gulf of Mexico
extending from the Florida Panhandle to Tampico Mexico. See above.
20-30 kt north winds are north of the front. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the front. A
surface trough is over the W Gulf from 26N91W to 21N91W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm
of the trough. In the upper levels, the base of a large trough is
over Texas supporting the cold front. An upper level ridge is
over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 88W. Upper level
diffluence E of the upper trough is enhancing the convection over
the W Gulf. Gale force winds will develop between the front and
the E coast of Mexico today. See special features above. Expect
the cold front in 24 hours to extend from Tampa Florida to the
western Bay of Campeche with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See above. The
eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over Costa Rica
and Panama. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW
Caribbean from 07N-11N between 76W-80W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is along the coast of Nicaragua from 11N-14N between
80W-85W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level high is
centered over the Windward Islands near 15N60W. Another small
upper level high is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near
18N88W. Expect the central Caribbean tropical wave to produce
additional convection over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently isolated convection is over Haiti due to a tropical
wave. Expect more scattered showers and isolated moderate
convection over the next 24 hours, especially in the afternoon and
evening hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1011 mb low is centered N of Hispaniola near 23N70W. A surface
trough extends N from the low to 29N71W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is from 20N-27N between 65W-70W. See above. A
1029 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 35N43W.
Elsewhere, the tail end of a cold front is producing scattered
showers over the Canary Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

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