[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Ophelia is centered near 30.0N 35.7W at 12/0300 UTC or
647 nm southwest of the Azores moving northeast at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection is from 27N-32N between 32W-38W. See the
latest Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis that extends
from 16N46W to 07N50W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave
coincides with 700 mb troughing and 850 mb relative vorticity max
along the wave axis near 10N. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 07N-14N between 44W-49W.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis extending
from 16N75W to 07N76W, moving west at 10-15 kt. A low amplitude
700 mb troughing is noted over the northern portion of South and
Central America. Despite the fact that abundant moisture prevails
in the area, no significant convection is observed with this wave
at this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W to 09N48W, then resumes
from 10N50W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical wave along 48W, no significant convection is observed at
this time with any of these boundaries.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from SE Louisiana near 30N90W across
the NW Gulf to 25N96W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N95W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 19N-26N and west of 96W.
Moderate to occasional fresh easterly winds prevail across the
basin. Expect for the front to weaken to a trough and become
diffuse through Friday. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are
expected through the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection associated with an upper-level low centered over
northern Cuba near 22N77W has diminished. At this time, isolated
moderate convection is from 15N-20N and west of 78W. A tropical
wave is moving across the south-central Caribbean and N Colombia.
See the section above for details. Scattered showers are noted
over the Mona Passage. This activity will dissipate overnight.
Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across
the whole basin. Little change is expected through the next 24
hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level low centered west of the island and is expected to
continue drifting west during the next couple of days. Upper
level divergent southwesterly flow is expected to develop over the
area supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms through the
next 24-48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Ophelia is over the central Atlantic, while a tropical
wave is along 48W. See the sections above for details. An upper-
level low centered over northern Cuba near 22N77W is supporting
scattered showers affecting the waters west of 70W. To the east, a
surface trough extends from 27N73W to 21N75W. Another trough
extends from 24N67W to 20N70W. Isolated showers are noted along
these features. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is
from 20N-24N between 50W-55W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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