[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Ophelia is centered near 31.1N 38.0W at 10/2100
UTC about 680 nm southwest of the Azores, moving southeast at 5
kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Bands of scattered moderate
convection are within 180 nm of the center. See the latest
Advisory/Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic with axis extending from
14N38W to 03N40W, moving west at 20 kt. The wave is in a moist
area as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough is well
defined in scatterometer data. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 07N-12N between 37W-45W.

A tropical wave is over the Caribbean with axis extending from
19N68W to 10N71W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is depicted
as a moist area in SSMI TPW imagery. A surface and 700 mb trough
are well defined. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is over the NE Caribbean from 15N-20N between 61W-68W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
07N18W to 06N29W. The ITCZ continues from 06N29W to 08N38W then
resumes from 07N41W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 04N-08N between 11W-14W, and from 05N-
08N between 20W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front off the coast of Texas extends from SW Louisiana to
S Texas. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the
front. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 21N93W
to 17N92W with minimal convection. A surface trough is over the
southern Gulf of Mexico from 26N85W to 22N84W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough. Expect the
cold front to extend from SE Louisiana to Tampico Mexico in 24
hours with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving into the central Caribbean. See above.
The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is in northern
Colombia. 10-15 kt trade winds prevail over the basin. An upper
level low centered N of Hispaniola near 23N69W. Diffluence from
this low is enhancing the convection over the Leeward Islands.
Expect the upper level low to move west over the next 48 hours.
Also expect convection over the SW Caribbean to increase.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated moderate convection is over the southern part of the
island. Expect convection associated with a tropical wave SE of
Hispaniola to spread across the island during the next 48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Ophelia is in the eastern Atlantic. A tropical
wave is moving across the central Atlantic. See above. A surface
trough is N of Puerto Rico from 26N64W to 20N68W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 21N-26N between 58W-
70W. Diffluence associated with an upper level low centered near
23N69W is enhancing the convection between 50W-70W. A 1024 mb
high is centered over the central Atlantic near 35N54W. Surface
ridging extends SW from this high to the E Gulf of Mexico.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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