[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Nate is centered near 32.0N 88.0W at 08/1200 UTC
or about 43 nm ESE of Meridian, Mississippi. Nate is moving NNE
at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous
strong convection is from 30N-32N between 85W-89W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 27N-35N between 84W-90W. A feeder
band of moderate to isolated strong convection is to the SE over
the E Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean. See the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Advisory/Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

A nearly stationary 1009 mb low pressure is located over the
central Atlantic near 31N39W. This system has lost some
organization during the past few hours. However, this low still
has the potential to become a subtropical cyclone today before
environmental conditions become unfavorable for development.
There is a high chance for tropical cyclone formation within the
next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 13N19W
to 03N19W, moving W at 5 kt. Satellite derived data indicate the
northern half of the wave is in a strong vertical shear region
while the southern half is in a low shear environment. Enhanced
IR satellite imagery show Saharan dry air and dust in the
northern wave envronment as well. This is limiting the
convection to the vicinity of the monsoon trough where scattered
moderate convection and tstms are underneath a region of upper
level diffluence from 04N-14N between 14W-24W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1011 mb
low located near 08N46W, which is expected to move WNW towards
12N49W within the next 24 hours. The wave axis extends from
16N44W to the low center to 06N46W, and has been moving W at 5
kt. The wave is in a region of mainly strong vertical wind shear
and is experiencing dry air intrusion to its environment as
indicated by CIRA LPW imagery at the lower levels. This is
limiting convection to scattered moderate from 10N-15N between
44W-48W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
18N52W to 09N53W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a
region of mainly strong vertical wind shear. Shallow moisture in
the wave environment along with middle level diffluence support
scattered moderate convection from 12N-16N between 50W-53W.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to
06N23W to 04N33W. The ITCZ extends from 04N33W to 06N42W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
scattered moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 20W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Nate is inland southern Mississippi, however
feeder rainbands of this system prevail over the E Gulf and
portions of the NW basin. See the special features section for
further details. Storm surge warnings have been issued for the
eastern Gulf coastline. Please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
Return flow will dominate the Gulf waters in the wake of Nate
Monday ahead of a cold front to come off the coast of Texas
Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Nate feeder rain bands continue to affect the NW
Caribbean waters N of 13N W of 78W. To the east, isolated
showers and tstms are over Hispaniola and adjacent waters being
supported by a surface trough over the SW N Atlc that extends to
inland W Dominican Republic. This activity is forecast to
continue through Tuesday. Gentle to moderate trades prevail
across the basin E of 82W while SE moderate to fresh winds are
over the western waters.
Expect convection over the NW Caribbean persist through Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and tstms are over Hispaniola and adjacent
waters being supported by a surface trough over the SW N Atlc
extending S to western Dominican Republic. This activity is
forecast to continue through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the
section above for details. In the west Atlantic waters, a
surface trough extends from 26N69W to 18N71W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted to the east of the boundary from 20N-24N
between 62W-68W. A dissipating cold front extends from 30N30W to
23N39W with scattered showers and tstms within 30 nm E of the
boundary. A surface ridge prevails elsewhere anchored by a 1025
mb high centered near 36N52W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Ramos/Formosa
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