[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Nate is centered near 31.5N 88.4W at 08/0900 UTC
or about 70 nm NNE of Biloxi, Mississippi. Nate is moving NNE at
20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 70 kt. Numerous
strong convection is from 30N-32N between 85W-89W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 27N-35N between 84W-90W. A feeder
band of moderate to isolated strong convection is to the SE over
the E Gulf of Mexico and NW Caribbean. See the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the full Advisory/Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

A nearly stationary 1009 mb low pressure is located over the
central Atlantic near 31N39W. This system has lost some
organization during the past few hours. However, this low still
has the potential to become a subtropical cyclone today before
environmental conditions become unfavorable for development. There
is a high chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next
48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 13N19W
to 03N19W, moving W at 5 kt. Satellite derived data indicate the
northern half of the wave is in a strong vertical shear region
while the southern half is in a low shear environment. Enhanced IR
satellite imagery show Saharan dry air and dust in the northern
wave envronment as well. This is limiting the convection to the
vicinity of the monsoon trough where scattered moderate convection
and tstms are underneath a region of upper level diffluence from
04N-14N between 14W-24W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1011 mb
low located near 08N46W, which is expected to move WNW towards
12N49W within the next 24 hours. The wave axis extends from
16N44W to the low center to 06N46W, and has been moving W at 5
kt. The wave is in a region of mainly strong vertical wind shear
and is experiencing dry air intrusion to its environment as
indicated by CIRA LPW imagery at the lower levels. This is
limiting convection to scattered moderate from 10N-15N between
44W-48W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
18N52W to 09N53W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a
region of mainly strong vertical wind shear. Shallow moisture in
the wave environment along with middle level diffluence support
scattered moderate convection from 12N-16N between 50W-53W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to
06N23W to 04N33W. The ITCZ extends from 04N33W to 06N42W. Besides
the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 20W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Nate is inland southern Mississippi, however feeder
rainbands of this system prevail over the E Gulf and portions of
the NW basin. See the special features section for further
details. Storm surge warnings have been issued for the eastern
Gulf coastline. Please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Return
flow will dominate the Gulf waters in the wake of Nate Monday
ahead of a cold front to come off the coast of Texas Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Nate feeder rain bands continue to affect the NW
Caribbean waters N of 13N W of 78W. To the east, isolated showers
and tstms are over Hispaniola and adjacent waters being supported
by a surface trough over the SW N Atlc that extends to inland W
Dominican Republic. This activity is forecast to continue through
Tuesday. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin E of
82W while SE moderate to fresh winds are over the western waters.
Expect convection over the NW Caribbean persist through Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers and tstms are over Hispaniola and adjacent
waters being supported by a surface trough over the SW N Atlc
extending S to western Dominican Republic. This activity is
forecast to continue through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the section
above for details. In the west Atlantic waters, a surface trough
extends from 26N69W to 18N71W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted to the east of the boundary from 20N-24N between 62W-68W. A
dissipating cold front extends from 30N30W to 23N39W with
scattered showers and tstms within 30 nm E of the boundary. A
surface ridge prevails elsewhere anchored by a 1025 mb high
centered near 36N52W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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