[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 080936
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-081745-

Tropical Storm Nate Local Statement Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Mobile AL  AL162017
436 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

...NOW TROPICAL STORM NATE RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
EARLY THIS MORNING...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Hurricane Warning has been cancelled and a Tropical Storm
      Warning has been issued for Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal,
      Baldwin Inland, George, Greene, Mobile Central, Mobile Coastal,
      Mobile Inland, Perry, Stone, and Washington

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Escambia
      Coastal, Mobile Central, Mobile Coastal, Mobile Inland,
      Okaloosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Coastal
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Butler, Choctaw,
      Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia, Escambia
      Inland, George, Greene, Monroe, Okaloosa Inland, Perry, Santa
      Rosa Inland, Stone, Washington, Wayne, and Wilcox

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 60 miles north-northwest of Mobile AL or about 100 miles
      northwest of Pensacola FL
    - 31.5N 88.4W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 25 degrees at 23 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Nate was quickly moving out of interior southeastern Mississippi
and into interior southwestern Alabama this morning. It will move into central Alabama
by sunrise. Maximum sustained winds are now gradually decreasing below 65 mph right
around the immediate core. Storm surge values have peaked, but are now very slowly
falling across the coastal areas this morning. This is due to both a falling astronomical
tide and the winds turning more westerly along the coast. Westward facing shores along area
bays will still experience peak surge for several more hours. Through around 8 AM, the
tornado and flash flood threats will gradually decrease and remain confined to a shrinking
area (i.e., threats ending form the southwest) mainly east of I-65 and north of highway 84.
Right now the main concern is inundation flooding from both lasting surge effects and runoff
from the heavy rain. Widespread power outages are still possible where Nate's core passes
through sunrise.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts along the Alabama and northwest Florida coastline.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

Storm surge inundation impacts are forecast to be 5 to 8 feet across southwest
Alabama. Storm surge inundation impacts are forecast to be 3 to 5 feet across
the western Florida Panhandle.

* WIND:
Potential impacts from the main wind event are also now unfolding
east of Nate's center across interior southwestern Alabama. Remain
well sheltered from dangerous wind having limited to significant impacts.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding across portions of southwest Alabama,
northwest Florida and south-central Alabama.
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

* TORNADOES:
The tornado threat is now limited to those areas east of I-65 and
north of Highway 84 to include portions of south central Alabama
and the northwest Florida Panhandle.
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
The rip current risk will remain high for the next two days. DO NOT go into
the water in the wake of NATE!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Do not return to evacuated areas until it is safe. Listen for the
all-clear signal from local authorities.

*
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
None.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 730 AM, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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